OPENINGS: Just about everything about the release of TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERAS TOUR (Variance/AMC Theaters) has been unique, and that includes the fact that the theater chain, a first-time distributor, has announced the weekend box office as $95-97M for now, with a definite number to be issued tomorrow. Even at the high end, that’s slightly below the triple digits that many had been forecasting, but truthfully there were few metrics to usefully estimate this. (For one thing, the weekend number would probably have been higher if Thursday night/Friday afternoon screenings hadn’t been announced at the last moment.) Eras Tour is already the highest-grossing concert movie in US history, and well into profit, because it cost $20-30M to produce, and had comparatively tiny marketing costs that may not even have reached $10M. The economics of the split between AMC and Swift haven’t been made public, but it seems more than likely that the performer is getting a much higher share of the gross than a conventional studio deal would have permitted, while AMC is benefiting by not having to share with a “real” studio, not to mention presumably cleaning up at the concession stand. The only negative note was that the international $31-33M, reportedly from more than 90 territories, was considerably below the US. There’s an expectation that Eras Tour was frontloaded by fans and will drop steeply next weekend, but the film is writing its own rules, so we’ll see.
HOLDOVERS: THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER (Morgan Creek/Blumhouse/Universal) had a decent hold, down 59% to $11M and likely to reach $70M in the US. It also has $40M overseas after a $15.9M weekend in 78 markets. A $150M worldwide total would be disappointing but profitable… depending on how much of the huge franchise rights fee was allocated to the film.
PAW PATROL: THE MIGHTY MOVIE (Nickelodeon/Paramount) dipped 38% to $7M in its 3rd weekend, on its way to $70M in the US. It also has $76.5M overseas after a $24.5M weekend in 67 territories. The sequel was low-budget by big-screen animation standards, and should be in good shape financially at $200M worldwide.
SAW X (Lionsgate) continued to hold extremely well for the horror genre, down 27% to $5.7M in its 3rd weekend, and heading to $60M in the US. That would be the best franchise result since Saw IV in 2007 (not adjusted for inflation). The international total is $29.9M after a $3.5M weekend in 56 markets.
THE CREATOR (20th/Disney) lost 31% to $4.3M in its 3rd weekend, and may not hit $50M in the US. It also has $46.7M overseas after a $5.9M weekend in 50 territories. It’s the highest-budgeted film in the Top 10, and those numbers will keep it in red ink.
A HAUNTING IN VENICE (20th/Disney) slipped 24% to $2.1M in its 5th weekend, and if it can get past $45.6M, it would beat Death On the Nile in the US. However, the international total of $67.1M is unlikely to pull past Nile‘s $91.7M.
THE BLIND (Fathom) dropped 37% to $2M in its 3rd weekend, and might reach $20M in the US. It hasn’t opened overseas.
THE NUN 2 (New Line/Warners) was down 38% to $1.6M in its 6th weekend, likely to be about 25% below its predecessor at $90M in the US. It’s much stronger overseas, with $173.5M after a $4M weekend in 74 territories, although running similarly below The Nun‘s total.
LIMITED RELEASE: ANATOMY OF A FALL (Neon) had an OK start with a weekend per-theater average of $25.1K at 5 NY/LA/San Francisco arthouses. (It isn’t clear whether that number included “preview” screenings held before Thursday.) DICKS: THE MUSICAL (A24) more than doubled its theater count to 15 and saw its average plunge 78% to $6300. THE MISSION (Picturehouse) opened with a $3800 average at 8.
NEXT WEEKEND: In what could be a perfect scenario of counterprogramming, Martin Scorsese’s 3 1/2-hour epic KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON (Paramount/Apple) is the only scheduled wide opening.
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