Behind the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 10.23.2022

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OPENINGS:  BLACK ADAM (DC/New Line/Warners) arrived within moderate expectations at $67M.  That’s the highest weekend we’ve seen since Thor: Love & Thunder in July, but as a superhero epic with a $300M+ production/marketing budget, it’s far below Love & Thunder ($144.2M), Doctor Strange In the Multiverse of Madness ($187.4M), and DC’s The Batman ($134M).  As of now it appears to be heading for a $150M US total, which would be less than thrilling.  Overseas results are comparable, with $72M from 76 markets, and only Japan still to come barring a release in China.

After weeks of overseas play, TICKET TO PARADISE (Universal) finally reached the US, where it was on the higher end of expectations at $16.3M, particularly notable since its target audience was older women.  Reviews weren’t enthusiastic, however (55% on Rotten Tomatoes), so word of mouth is unclear.  Also, Paradise was fairly pricey by the standards of its genre, with around $125M in production/marketing costs.  Still, after $80M already earned overseas following a $4.8M weekend in 78 markets, the film is on target for mild success.

HOLDOVERS:  SMILE (Paramount) continues to hold sensationally for a horror movie, down 34% to $8.4M in its 4th weekend and on its way to pass $100M in the US.  It also has $82M overseas after a $10M weekend in 61 markets.

At the other extreme, the bottom fell out of HALLOWEEN ENDS (Universal, also on Peacock), which plunged 80% from last week’s opening to $8M, and may not reach $75M in the US.  It won’t be rescued internationally, where it has $27.8M, with Japan the last major opening to come.

LYLE, LYLE, CROCODILE (Columbia/Sony) dropped 43% to $4.2M in its 3rd weekend, on track for $40M in the US.  In early overseas release, it has $8.4M after a $4M weekend in 16 territories.

THE WOMAN KING (TriStar/Sony) lost 49% to $1.9M in its 6th weekend, and may reach $70M in the US.  It’s lower overseas, with $20M after a $2M weekend in 38 markets.

The sleeper story of the year may be TERRIFIER 2 (Cinedigm), which only increased its theater count by about 7%, but somehow zoomed by 84% to $1.9M in its 3rd weekend.  With that kind of audience-fueled enthusiasm, there’s no way to be certain at this point what its upper limits may be.  It’s barely been released overseas for now.

LIMITED RELEASE:  Awards season continued to bring openings and expansions.  The major arrival was THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN (Searchlight/Disney), which had a weekend per-theater $45K average at 4 NY/LA arthouses, while AFTERSUN (A24) averaged $17K at 4.  (Both were helped by in-theater Q&As.)  The expanding titles found their averages dwindling:  TRIANGLE OF SADNESS (Neon) with $2100 at 280, TAR (Focus/Universal) with $3300 at 141, TILL (Orion/MGM/Amazon) with $3600 at 104, and DECISION TO LEAVE (MUBI) with $6200 at 48.  THE RETURN OF TANYA TUCKER (Sony) averaged $2300 at 4.

NEXT WEEKEND:  PREY FOR THE DEVIL (Lionsgate) will attempt to mop up the Halloween weekend horror audience, while the awards hunt will commence for ARMAGEDDON TIME (Focus/Universal) and CALL JANE (Roadside).