Behind the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 10.9.2022

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OPENINGS:  LYLE LYLE CROCODILE (Columbia/Sony) arrived below expectations at $11.5M (it might reach $13.4M with the Monday holiday), unable to take advantage of the 11-week gap since the last major family movie opened.  It has more than a month until Strange World claims that audience, but even with strong holds, it still may not get past $50M in the US.  Lyle hasn’t yet opened overseas.

Launches don’t come much more disastrous than the $6.5M for David O. Russell’s all-star AMSTERDAM (20th/Disney), and the reviews and exit polls don’t suggest much chance that momentum will build or that it can find a place in awards season.  Amsterdam reportedly cost $80M before its extensive marketing, and it may come to be remembered as one of the final nails in the coffin of big-budget prestige theatrical films.  The overseas prospects were no better with  $3.5M in 30 markets.

The low-budget horror entry TERRIFIER 2 (Cinedigm) broke its Thursday opening day off from its weekend, a rarity these days, so officially its 4-day total was $1.2M, with $825K from Friday-Sunday.

TICKET TO PARADISE (Universal) continues to run overseas while its US opening awaits, with $60.6M to date after a $10.4M weekend.

HOLDOVERS:  Even with the general strength of the horror market, SMILE (Paramount) is proving itself to be particularly notable, down a tiny 22% by the standards of the genre to $17.6M in its 2nd weekend.  Smile will face major competition next week from Halloween Ends, but still has a chance of hitting a remarkable $100M in the US.  It’s also bright overseas, where it has $40M after a $17.5M weekend in 61 territories.

THE WOMAN KING (TriStar/Sony) is also holding extremely well, down 22% to $5.3M in its 4th weekend and on its way to $70M+ in the US.  It’s facing more challenges overseas, where it has $10M after a $5.4M weekend.

DON’T WORRY DARLING (New Line/Warners) continued to fall steeply, down 49% to $3.5M, and not certain to reach $50M in the US.  After a $6.6M weekend in 66 overseas markets, it has $30.8M internationally.

The re-release of AVATAR (20th/Disney) lost many of its Imax and other premium-priced screens, and fell 47% to $2.6M, on pace for a healthy $30M from the current release.  It’s earned $48.6M overseas after a $3.9M weekend in 51 territories.

BARBARIAN (20th/Disney) has held quite well for a horror movie, if not as impressively as Smile, with a 23% dip to $2.2M in its 5th weekend as it heads past $40M in the US.  It’s barely begun its overseas release and has $1.6M to date.

Any hopes that BROS (Universal) would make up for its lackluster opening with a strong hold were dashed by its 56% drop to $2.2M.  It may not get much past $15M in the US, and despite its moderate budget will likely lose the costs of its substantial marketing.  It hasn’t yet opened overseas.

LIMITED RELEASE:  Awards season arrived in earnest at big-city arthouses.  TAR (Focus/Universal) launched with a fair $40K weekend per-theater average at 4 in NY/LA.  TRIANGLE OF SADNESS (Neon) went a bit wider and had a $21K average at 10.  Meanwhile, THE STORIED LIFE OF AJ FIKRY (Vertical) averaged less than $400 at 332.

NEXT WEEKEND:  The studios deliver their first tentpole title in months with HALLOWEEN ENDS (Universal, also on Peacock).  The awards contenders continue arriving with TILL (Orion/MGM/Amazon) and DECISION TO LEAVE (MUBI).