Behind the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 11.13.2022

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OPENINGS:  As expected, BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER (Marvel/Disney) swamped the box office worldwide.  Its $180M US weekend was below Doctor Strange 2 ($187.4M) and the original Black Panther ($202M, on a Presidents Day weekend), but still the biggest opening Hollywood has seen in 6 months, reinforcing the MCU as the center of movie culture despite all the criticisms of its Phase 4 content.  Wakanda Forever is somewhat more frontloaded than its predecessor, down 33% on Saturday and a projected 30% on Sunday, compared to Black Panther‘s 13%/9%, suggesting that its US total may be more like the $411.3M of Multiverse of Madness (which had 36%/33% Day 2/3 drops) than Black Panther‘s $700.4M.  However, Wakanda Forever will be helped by the lack of major competition expected over the next month.  Overseas, where it launched in all major territories except China and Russia, Wakanda Forever opened with $150M, also below Black Panther ($169M).

HOLDOVERS:  BLACK ADAM (DC/New Line/Warners) inevitably took a hit from the arrival of Wakanda Forever, down 53% to $8.6M in its 4th weekend, and still on track for $175M in the US.  Overseas, its total was $201.1M after a $9.7M weekend in 76 territories.

Despite its availability at home, TICKET TO PARADISE (Universal, also on VOD) held up quite well, down 21% to $6.9M and potentially on its way to $75M in the US.  Its overseas total is $93.5M after a $1.4M weekend in 79 markets.

With the youngster market to itself (apart from some Wakanda Forever spillover), LYLE, LYLE, CROCODILE (Columbia/Sony) inched down just 5% to $3.2M in its 6th weekend, and might reach $50M in the US.  It has $31.8M overseas after a $3.5M weekend in 49 markets.

SMILE (Paramount) has now passed $100M in the US, and in its 7th weekend it dropped 42% to $2.3M, and should hit $110M before it’s done.  Overseas, it has $107.2M after a $2.3M weekend in 56 territories.

PREY FOR THE DEVIL (Lionsgate) fell 48% to $2M in its 3rd weekend, on track to pass $20M in the US.  It also has $9.2M overseas.

THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN (Searchlight/Disney) held quite well compared to other awards contenders, down 17% to $1.7M and hoping for a long stay in theaters.  It’s also earned $8.6M in the UK.

As usual for anime, ONE PIECE FILM: RED (Crunchyroll) was hugely frontloaded, down 85% to $1.4M and unlikely to get much past $15M in the US.  However, it’s overseas total is $139M (almost all of it from Japan).

LIMITED RELEASE:  The marquee release of the weekend was THE FABELMANS (Universal), and its $40K weekend per-theatre average in 4 NY/LA exclusive engagements was solidly in line with the opening averages for other awards hopefuls ($40K for Tar, $46K for Banshees), but perhaps a bit disappointing since Fabelmans hails from Steven Spielberg and has been pitched as more populist than those contenders.  AFTERSUN (A24) expanded to 92 with a $1500 average.

NEXT WEEKEND:  The only scheduled wide release is SHE SAID (Universal), which will attempt to nibble around the edges of Wakanda Forever‘s Weekend 2.  More awards titles will arrive in smaller releases, including THE INSPECTION (A24), THE MENU (Searchlight/Disney), and BONES AND ALL (MGM/Amazon).