Behind the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 11.26.2023

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OPENINGS:  NAPOLEON (Apple/Sony) launched at the higher end of expectations, with $20.4M over the 3-day weekend and $32.5M for the 5-day holiday.  As with Apple’s Killers of the Flower Moon, however, that leaves it a long way from any hope of breakeven on roughly $300M in production/marketing costs (particularly considering that audience polling indicated lukewarm enthusiasm), and will continue the discourse about whether Apple has any interest in making its money back on its theatrical releases.  Napoleon, also like Flower Moon, was stronger overseas with $46.3M from 56 territories.

WISH (Disney) continued its studio’s mostly awful year at the box office, well below projections with $19.5M over 3 days and $31.7M since Wednesday.  Things were no better overseas, with $17.3M from 27 markets.  Wish‘s wish will be to hold momentum through the holidays, but it will face direct competition from Wonka and Migration, and faces a challenge in earning back its $300M in costs.

The path from arthouse to wide release continued to be tough, with the latest victim being SALTBURN (MGM/Amazon), expanding to 1566 theaters with $1.7M for the 3-day weekend ($2.7M over 5 days).  For the Friday-Sunday period, that gave it the 2nd-worst per-theater average in the Top 10, barely squeezing past the 5th weekend of Five Nights at Freddy’s.  With little sign that Saltburn will have a major awards season presence, its fate seems dire.

HOLDOVERS:  The limited appeal of the newcomers cleared the way for THE HUNGER GAMES: THE BALLAD OF SONGBIRDS OF SNAKES (Lionsgate) to keep the top slot, down 35% to $28.8M for the 3-day weekend ($41.1M since Wednesday).  That’s far below the Thanksgiving performance of the last entry in the franchise, Mockingjay Part 2 ($52M/$76M), but Songbirds & Snakes also cost much less, and if the new film can top $300M worldwide (it has $98.9M overseas after a $26.2M weekend), it should be moderately profitable.

TROLLS BAND TOGETHER (Illumination/Universal) dropped 42% over the 3-day weekend to $17.5M ($25.3M over 5 days), and should top $100M in the US.  It also has $81.4M overseas.  The Trolls movies, unlike Disney’s animated features, are produced on a relatively tight budget, so $200M+ worldwide may be enough to keep the franchise going.

With the help of its titular holiday, THANKSGIVING (Columbia/Sony) dipped 29% Friday-Sunday to $7.3M ($11.1M since Wednesday), and may reach $45M in the US.  Presumably due to the lack of an overseas Thanksgiving holiday, international release has been limited thus far and is at $4.9M.

THE MARVELS (Marvel/Disney) lost 37% to $6.4M over the 3-day weekend ($9.2M since Wednesday), and it remained on track to become the first MCU release to total less than $100M in the US.  Overseas is better, but not by nearly enough with $112M.

THE HOLDOVERS (Focus/Universal) demonstrated strong word of mouth by rising 2% to $2.8M over the 3-day weekend ($3.8M over 5 days), while increasing its theater count by 8%.  However, in accord with Universal’s usual practice, the film will hit VOD next week, which may blunt its ability to build a theatrical head of steam.  It hasn’t yet begun an international run.

In its 7th weekend, TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERAS TOUR (Variance/AMC Theaters) was down just 16% to $2.3M (it doesn’t play midweek, so the 5-day total was $2.5M).  The film is on track for $185M in the US, but it isn’t clear how it will be affected by next week’s opening of Beyonce’s Renaissance concert doc (also from AMC).  Eras Tour has an additional $70.7M overseas

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY’S (Blumhouse/Universal) fell 51% to $1.8M Friday-Sunday ($2.5M since Wednesday), and will pass $140M in the US.  It’s even bigger overseas with $146.9M.

NEXT GOAL WINS (Searchlight/Disney) was down 32% to $1.7M over the 3-day weekend ($2.6M over 5 days), and won’t get much past $10M in the US.  No international openings at this point.

PRISCILLA (A24) fell 44% to $1.3M Friday-Sunday ($1.8M since Wednesday), and might see $25M in the US.  It hasn’t yet opened overseas.

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON (Apple/Paramount) lost more than half its theaters and was down 46% to $1.1M over the 3-day weekend ($1.5M over 5 days).  It has a chance of hitting $70M in the US, and also has $86.2M overseas, which means that it will probably have a 9-figure loss on its theatrical run.

LIMITED RELEASE:  DREAM SCENARIO (A24) expanded to 124 theaters with an OK $5200 per-theater average over the 3-day weekend.  FALLEN LEAVES (MUBI) widened to 8 and averaged $5300.

NEXT WEEKEND:  The start of December is a traditionally lean time for the box office.  As noted, RENAISSANCE (Variance/AMC Theaters) will attempt to fill that gap, as will the thriller SILENT NIGHT (Lionsgate).