Behind the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 12.1.2019

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OPENINGS:  KNIVES OUT (MRC/Lionsgate) scored a victory for non-IP, adult-oriented filmmaking with a strong $27M over the 3-day weekend ($41.7M since Wednesday), and although December box office can be tough to predict, with a plunge expected next weekend and then the arrival of multiple presumptive blockbusters, Knives Out seems to be on track for $85M+ in the US against around $100M in production/worldwide marketing costs,  with the potential to go significantly higher depending on word of mouth.  The film also earned $28.3M in 53 overseas markets, $13.5M of that from China.

QUEEN & SLIM (BRON/Universal) had more modest expectations, and its $11.7M weekend ($15.8M since Wednesday) is considered a moderate win against $60M or so in costs.  It hasn’t yet opened overseas, and $35M in the US may not be enough to bring it to breakeven overall if its international appeal runs short.

HOLDOVERS:  FROZEN 2 (Disney) will be the studio’s latest $1B+ blockbuster.  In the US, it set a Thanksgiving weekend record with $85.3M ($126.3M since Wednesday), down 35% from last weekend and on track for $450M, which would be more than 10% ahead of the first Frozen.  It’s at $451M overseas after a $163.8M weekend in most of the world’s major territories.  Its ultimate worldwide total may be $1.3-1.4B (Frozen‘s total was $1.27B) , placing it among the top 10-15 of all time.

Another pair of non-franchise dramas continued to do solid business.  FORD VS FERRARI (20th/Disney) dropped 16% to $13.2M for the weekend ($19M since Wednesday), and should get past $100M in the US.  As we’ve noted before, however, FvsF was an expensive production, and even with that US result, it will need help overseas for any profit.  It has $63.2M to date outside the US after a $10.2M weekend in 48 territories.

A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD (Columbia/Sony) slipped just 11% to $11.8M for the 3 day weekend ($17.2M since Wednesday), and is clearly getting favorable word of mouth that could push it past $60M in the US.  It hasn’t yet opened overseas, though, and it isn’t clear how its very American subject matter will fare in other territories.

21 BRIDGES (H Brothers/MWM/STX) fell 37% to $5.8M in its 2nd weekend ($7.9M since Wednesday), on its way to $30M or so in the US.  It has $2.7M in limited international release.

PLAYING WITH FIRE (Paramount) benefited from the family audience available for the holiday, down just 7% to $4.2M in Weekend 4 ($6M since Wednesday), and it may reach $50M in the US, somewhat below the $67.4M for last year’s Instant Family.  It has $6.1M overseas.

MIDWAY (AGC/Bona/Lionsgate) dipped 15% to $4M in its 4th weekend ($5.8M since Wednesday), and could get to $60M in the US.  It’s another pricey venture, and its current $49M overseas total won’t bring it where it needs to be for profit.

JOKER (BRON/DC/Warners) stayed in the Top 10, down 26% to $2M in its 9th weekend ($2.9M since Wednesday), as it continues to head toward $335M in the US.  Overseas, it’s at $717.7M.

Long before its titular holiday, LAST CHRISTMAS (Perfect World/Universal) is all but out of gas, down 36% to $2M in its 4th weekend ($2.8M since Wednesday) as it chugs toward $35M in the US, with $36.2M overseas to date.

LIMITED RELEASE:  None of the weekend’s expansions were particularly impressive.  DARK WATERS (Focus/Universal), now in 94 theatres, averaged $6700 over the 3-day weekend.  HONEY BOY (Amazon) widened to 186 and averaged $2100.  WAVES (A24) averaged $3K at 47.  The saddest was PAIN & GLORY (Sony Classics), which averaged just $700 at 152.

NEXT WEEKEND:  The weekend after Thanksgiving is notoriously terrible at the box office, and the only wide opening is PLAYMOBIL: THE MOVIE (STX).  Limited releases include PORTRAIT OF A LADY ON FIRE (Neon) and THE AERONAUTS (Amazon).