Behind the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 12.15.2019

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OPENINGS:  JUMANJI: THE NEXT LEVEL (Columbia/Sony) successfully rode its strategy of arriving in theatres ahead of The Rise of Skywalker to a $60.1M weekend, far ahead of the $36.2M opening weekend for the last Jumanji (although that had a different release pattern, opening on the Wednesday between that year’s Star Wars installment and Christmas itself–it had $52.8M as of its first Sunday).  Next Level will benefit handsomely from the holiday break, and should perform at least at the level of its predecessor’s $404.5M in the US.  Overseas, it’s at $152.7M after an $85.7M weekend in 52 markets (not yet including Italy, Australia and Brazil), and it will be gunning for the $557.6M earned internationally by the last chapter.

Clint Eastwood’s directing decade has been very up (The Mule, Sully and of course American Sniper) and down (The 15:17 To Paris, Jersey Boys, J. Edgar), and RICHARD JEWELL (Warners) is emphatically at the low end with a miserable $5M weekend.  Even with a holiday multiple, Jewell won’t come near its $100M production/marketing costs, and it’s unlikely to have any significant appeal overseas.

BLACK CHRISTMAS (Blumhouse/Universal) thought it could make something of its holiday theme and a Friday the 13th opening, but no one showed up for a $4.4M opening, and things were no better overseas with $3.1M in 37 territories.  Even with the low costs of a Blumhouse production, this one will have no Yuletide cheer.

HOLDOVERS:  Despite relinquishing the top slot to Jumanji, FROZEN 2 (Disney) remained strong, down 46% to $19.2M in its 4th weekend, still on track for $425-450M in the US.  Worldwide, it’s now passed the $1B milestone (it’s at $1.03B), with $666M overseas after a $55.7M weekend in 48 markets and Brazil still to come.

KNIVES OUT (MRC/Lionsgate) has proven itself a true crowd-pleaser, down 35% to $9.3M in its 3rd weekend, and on its way past $100M in the US.  It also has $83.2M overseas after a $13.6M weekend in all major markets except Germany and Japan.

FORD VS FERRARI (20th/Disney) is the other adult-themed title of choice (although at a much more expensive price-point than Knives Out), down 38% to $4.1M in its 5th weekend and poised to pass $100M in the US next week.  It has a slightly milder $86.4M overseas after a $5.1M weekend in 53 territories, and that may keep it at breakeven rather than profit.

QUEEN & SLIM (BRON/Universal) dropped 47% to $3.6M in its 3rd weekend, and if it can hold onto its theatres, it might reach $45M in the US.  It hasn’t yet opened overseas.

A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD (Columbia/Sony) continued to be sedate, down 36% to $3.4M in its 4th weekend and heading toward $60M in the US.  It also hasn’t ventured to international shores yet.

DARK WATERS (Focus/Universal) fell 50% to $2M in its 2nd wide weekend, and with no awards traction, it will probably trail off at around $15M in the US, with negligible international results thus far.

LIMITED RELEASE:  Two of the three marquee openings of the weekend went very well, both boosted by starry in-theatre Q&As.  UNCUT GEMS (A24) launched with a shiny $106K per-theatre weekend average at 5, and BOMBSHELL (Lionsgate) started with a $78K average at 4.  Things were much tougher for the 3-hour Terence Malick slog A HIDDEN LIFE (Fox Searchlight/Disney), which only managed a $10K average at 5.  In addition, 63 UP (Britbox) expanded to 20 with a $2200 average.

NEXT WEEKEND:  There’s no doubt that STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER (LucasFilm/Disney) will be huge, the question is how huge, compared to the $248M opening for The Force Awakens and the $220M for The Last Jedi.  Counterprogramming will come from the intrepid musical CATS (Universal), already the subject of a million memes.