OPENINGS: THE LEGO MOVIE 2: THE SECOND PART (Warners Animation) had a solid 83% family matinee bump on Saturday, but its $34.4M weekend studio estimate is still down more than 50% from the opening of the original Lego Movie, and down 35% from The Lego Batman Movie. (It’s considerably better than the relatively disastrous $20.4M for The Lego Ninjago Movie.) A US total of $125M will require strong performance overseas for any profit, but early results are unimpressive, with $18.1M in 63 markets (not including China, which was occupied this weekend with local Chinese New Year releases).
WHAT MEN WANT (Paramount) was within its expected range at $19M, which included a 14% Saturday bump. That’s 20% below the opening of Night School, and points to an OK $60M US total. It hasn’t yet opened overseas, and it’s not clear how wide that release will be.
COLD PURSUIT (Studiocanal/Summit/Lionsgate), despite the torrent of words devoted to Liam Neeson’s controversial interview, also opened as expected at $10.8M, with a 24% Saturday bump. That’s Neeson’s worst action-movie opening, but just barely behind Run All Night‘s $11M, and should end up at $25M in the US, with any profit coming from overseas (where it hasn’t yet opened).
THE PRODIGY (Orion/MGM) launched with $6M (up 20% on Saturday) and probably won’t see $15M in the US. This supposedly is a road to profit for the low-budget horror entry.
ALITA: BATTLE ANGEL (20th) doesn’t open in the US until next week, but it’s premiered with $32M in the UK and 10 Asian markets (not including China). Alita carries around $300M in production/marketing costs, so it’s likely to require major success overseas to establish itself as a franchise.
We’re still 2 weeks away from HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON: THE HIDDEN WORLD (DreamWorks Animation/Universal) hitting US soil, but it’s already earned $138.7M overseas after a $38.2M weekend in 46 overseas markets.
HOLDOVERS: Sunday-to-Sunday comparisons will be particularly strong due to last week’s Super Bowl, helping many of the holdovers’ overall weekends. THE UPSIDE (Lantern/STX) dipped 17% to $7.2M in its 5th weekend, and could make it all the way to $100M in the US. It’s still in limited overseas release with $8.9M to date.
GLASS (Blinding Edge/Blumhouse/Universal) was down 33% to $6.4M in its 4th weekend, still on track for $110M in the US. Its overseas performance is very similar, with $123M so far after a $6.6M weekend. Glass will certainly be profitable thanks to its low production cost, but it won’t match Split‘s $278.5M worldwide total.
GREEN BOOK (Participant/DreamWorks/Reliance/Universal) lost 18% to $3.6M, and the question of how far it will get over $70M in the US will be resolved on Oscar night. Overseas, it’s at $44.6M after an $11.4M weekend in 54 territories.
AQUAMAN (DC/Warners) is nearing the end of its US run, down 32% in its 8th weekend to $3.3M as it heads to $335M. Overseas, it opened in Japan this weekend and is now in all major markets, with a $791.9M total after $6M for the weekend.
SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE (Sony Animation/Columbia/Sony) dropped 33% to $3M in its 9th weekend, and will hope for an Oscar bump to get it above $185M as a US total. It’s at $172.7M overseas.
MISS BALA (Columbia/Sony) unsurprisingly fell 60% to $2.7M from last weekend’s opening, and probably won’t reach $20M in the US. So far it’s only had a token opening overseas, under $100K.
LIMITED RELEASE: The highest-profile opening was EVERYBODY KNOWS (Focus/Universal), which had an OK $19K weekend per-theatre average. The yearly slate of OSCAR NOMINATED SHORT FILMS (Magnolia), which includes separate shows for animation, live action and documentary, averaged $3400 at 265 theatres. As noted, the Chinese New Year has been a bonanza in the holiday’s home market, where The Wandering Earth has earned $298M in 6 days. In the US, the only visible sign was the $1000 per-theatre average for PEPPA WELCOMES CHINESE NEW YEAR (STX) in 70 theatres (the film has earned $16.6M in China). LORDS OF CHAOS (Gunpowder & Sky) averaged $7K at 4. COLD WAR (Amazon) expanded to 270 theatres with a $1900 average. CAPERNAUM (Sony Classics) averaged $2200 at 63. ARCTIC (Bleecker Street) averaged $5500 at 15. NEVER LOOK AWAY (Sony Classics) averaged $13K at 3.
NEXT WEEKEND: Due to Valentine’s Day, openings are spread across Wednesday and Thursday. The first day brings ISN’T IT ROMANTIC (New Line/Warners) and HAPPY DEATH DAY 2 U (Blumhouse/Universal). They’re joined the next day by the aforementioned Alita: Battle Angel and FIGHTING WITH MY FAMILY (Annapurna/MGM). Limited releases include BIRDS OF PASSAGE (Orchard).
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