March 10, 2019

Behind the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 3.10.2019


OPENINGS:  CAPTAIN MARVEL (Marvel/Disney) launched with $455M worldwide, the highest superhero intro movie ever (although not all the titles in that category opened in China on their first weekend).  In the US, its $153M total was #2 behind Black Panther, which had the advantage of a holiday weekend Sunday.  Captain Marvel declined 14% on Saturday, almost the same as Black Panther‘s 13% drop, and not much worse than Wonder Woman‘s 8%.  (Captain Marvel‘s weekend towered over Wonder Woman‘s $103.3M start.)  The $302M overseas opening in 53 territories included $89.3M from China.  Even with just medium-level word of mouth,  Captain Marvel should top $400M in the US and $1B worldwide, the 7th Marvel title to reach those numbers (the only other character intro movie in that group is Black Panther, and that one has an asterisk because the character had already been featured in Captain America: Civil War).  In short, the world is just fine with female-led superhero movies, and the Marvel brand continues to be pop culture’s champion… and all this is just an appetizer to the arrival of Avengers: Endgame, which may rewrite the record books in just a few weeks.

HOLDOVERS:  HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON: THE HIDDEN WORLD (DreamWorks Animation/Universal) led the weekend’s also-rans.  In the US, it dropped 51% to $14.7M, and now seems like it may end up at $160M.  Overseas, it’s at $315.5M after a $21.7M weekend in 64 territories, with Japan still to come.  The worldwide total is likely to be around 15% below Dragon 2.

MADEA FAMILY FUNERAL (Lionsgate) fell 56% to $12.1M from last week’s opening, on its way to $65M in the US.  It’s had only a sliver of international release.

THE LEGO MOVIE 2: THE SECOND PART (Warners Animation) dropped 42% in its 5th weekend to $3.8M, and should get to $105M in the US.  Overseas, it’s an even bigger disappointment, with $67.3M after a $3.9M weekend in 72 markets.

ALITA: BATTLE ANGEL (20th) continued its fast burn-off in the US, down 56% to $3.2M in its 4th weekend and heading to an $85M total.  Overseas, it’s much bigger at $304.3M after an $11.6M weekend in 74 territories, but with $126M of that from China with its lower return to the studio, it’s unlikely to break even.

GREEN BOOK (Participant/DreamWorks/Reliance/Universal) subsided by 46% to $2.5M from its post-Oscar weekend, and with video release starting next week, it will probably have an $85M US total  The fact that this will make it the #3 Best Picture winner of the last decade, behind Argo and The King’s Speech, says a lot about the current Oscars.  (In the previous decade, it would have been #8.)  Overseas, it’s at a more robust $162.1M after a $28.3M weekend in 66 markets, sparked by $44.2M in China.

ISN’T IT ROMANTIC (BRON/New Line/Warners) dropped 47% to $2.4M in Weekend 4, hoping to reach $50M in the US.  It hasn’t yet been released overseas.

FIGHTING WITH MY FAMILY (Annapurna/MGM) fell 53% to $2.2M, and won’t see $25M in the US.

GRETA (Focus/Universal) lost 52% to $2.2M from last week’s premiere, and won’t reach $15M in the US.  It’s ta $800K overseas.

LIMITED RELEASE:  APOLLO 11 (Neon) lost its IMAX screens to Captain Marvel, but nevertheless expanded to 405 theatres, with a mild $3200 weekend per-theatre average.  The weekend’s indie crown went to GLORIA BELL (A24), with a strong $31K average at 5 NY/LA arthouses.  THE KID (Lionsgate) opened at 268 with a dim $1900 average.  CLIMAX (A24) widened to 28 with a $4K average.  THE WEDDING GUEST (IFC) averaged $2100 at 31.  BIRDS OF PASSAGE (Orchard) managed a $1200 average at 50.  TRANSIT (Music Box) averaged $8500 at 5.

NEXT WEEKEND:  The studios are keeping their distance from Captain Marvel‘s 2nd weekend, sticking to lower-profile releases.  They include the sci-fi thriller CAPTIVE STATE (Focus/Universal), YA romance FIVE FEET APART (Lionsgate), and the animated WONDER PARK (Paramount).  Among the limited releases are the Spanish-language NO MANCHES FRIDA 2 (Pantelion/Lionsgate), THE AFTERMATH (Fox Searchlight), and THE MUSTANG (Focus/Universal).


About the Author

Mitch Salem
MITCH SALEM has worked on the business side of the entertainment industry for 20 years, as a senior business affairs executive and attorney for such companies as NBC, ABC, USA, Syfy, Bravo, and BermanBraun Productions, and before that, at the NY law firm of Weil, Gotshal & Manges. During all that, he has more or less constantly been going to the movies and watching TV, and writing about both since the 1980s. His film reviews also currently appear on and In addition, he is co-writer of an episode of the television series "Felicity."