March 31, 2019

Behind the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 3.31.2019


OPENINGS:  DUMBO (Disney) had a 14% Saturday bump that was merely OK considering its underwhelming first day, and that brought it to a $45M weekend.  Even if it reaches $150M in the US, it would need help to get out of red ink with $300M+ in production/marketing costs, and so far it doesn’t seen as though international audiences are any more enthusiastic, with a $71M start in all major overseas markets (including China and, unusually, Japan).  If Dumbo can’t withstand the arrival of next week’s Shazam, it may be an atypical air-ball for Disney.

UNPLANNED (Pure Flix) was overwhelmingly frontloaded, plunging 42% on its 2nd day of release.  This meant that its opening day box office made up 48% of the $6.1M weekend, which is on par with the famously audience-rejected Batman v. Superman.  With appeal apparently limited to anti-abortion true believers (by comparison, a Christian film like God’s Not Dead 2 only dipped 8% on its first Saturday), it may have trouble getting past $15M in the US.

HOTEL MUMBAI (Bleecker Street) swiftly expanded from 4 theatres to 924 with mediocre results, a $3.2M weekend that translated into a $3400 per-theatre average.

THE BEACH BUM (Neon) flopped with a $1.8M weekend at 1100 theatres, giving it a $1600 per-theatre average.  By comparison, director Harmony Korine’s Spring Breakers earned $4.9M in its first weekend at 1104.  Beach Bum may not make it beyond $5M in the US.

HOLDOVERS:  US (Blumhouse/Perfect World/Universal) had a fair hold for a horror movie, down 53% to $33.6M.  That wasn’t in a league with Get Out‘s unearthly 15% Weekend 2 drop, but it compared to the 51% drop for It, and wasn’t much worse than the 47% for The Conjuring.  It should reach $195M in the US, which would be 10% higher than Get Out.  Things are slower overseas (as they were for Get Out), where Us is at $46.3M after a $22.6M weekend in 60 territories, with a few (Italy, Mexico, Japan) yet to come.  It seems as though at least two-thirds of the worldwide box office for Us will come from the US, which would be similar to Get Out (69%), but markedly different from It (47%) and The Conjuring (43%).

CAPTAIN MARVEL (Marvel/Disney) held well, down 40% to $20.5M in its 4th weekend.  That’s not far off the 38% drop for Black Panther in the parallel weekend, and better than the 53% for Avengers: Infinity War and Captain America: Civil War.  It remains on target for $390-400M in the US, with the unknowable factor being whether the onset of Avengers: Endgame will help or hurt it in the coming weeks.  Overseas, Captain Marvel is at $636.8M after a $26.4M weekend in all major markets, and it will hit the magic $1B mark next week, becoming the 7th Marvel title to ring that bell.

FIVE FEET APART (CBS/Lionsgate) had a terrific Weekend 3 hold, down just 27% to $6.3M, and capable of hitting $50M in the US.  So far, it’s not finding as much of an audience overseas, where it’s at $14.8M after a $6.2M weekend in 39 territories.

WONDER PARK (Nickelodeon/Paramount) dropped 44% to $4.9M in its 3rd weekend, and seems unlikely to see $50M in the US.  It’s in only 23 markets overseas, but the numbers are low with $14.4M after a $2.5M weekend.  The question on this one seems to be how much of its considerable cost it’s going to lose.

HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON: THE HIDDEN WORLD (DreamWorks Animation/Universal) dipped 35% to $4.2M in its 6th weekend, still on its way to $160M in the US.  Overseas, it’s at $348.9M after a $2.6M weekend in 58 territories.  A $525M worldwide total would be down about 15% from Dragon 2.

MADEA FAMILY FUNERAL (Lionsgate) continued to hold very well for a Tyler Perry film, down 39% to $2.7M in its 5th weekend, and on track to be the #2 Madea movie at $75M.  It has $1.1M in very limited international release, following the franchise pattern.

LIMITED RELEASE:  DIANE (IFC, also available on VOD) garnered rave reviews and had a quiet $9K weekend average at 3 theatres.  SLUT IN A GOOD WAY (Comedy Dynamics) averaged $3100 at 7.  The Steve Bannon documentary THE BRINK (Magnolia) averaged $4600 at 4.  THE CHAPERONE (PBS) averaged $6100 at 2.  THE MUSTANG (Focus/Universal) expanded to 181 with a so-so $3200 average.  THE AFTERMATH (Fox Searchlight) was slower with a $1900 average after an expansion to 161.  ASH IS PUREST WHITE (Cohen) averaged $1200 at 47.  SUNSET (Sony Classics) averaged $1500 at 10.

NEXT WEEKEND:  An array of genres, from the comic-book adventure SHAZAM (DC/New Line/Warners) to the inspirational THE BEST OF ENEMIES (STX) and the not-so-inspirational PET SEMETARY (Paramount).  Limited releases include AMAZING GRACE (Neon), HIGH LIFE (A24) and PETERLOO (Amazon).

About the Author

Mitch Salem
MITCH SALEM has worked on the business side of the entertainment industry for 20 years, as a senior business affairs executive and attorney for such companies as NBC, ABC, USA, Syfy, Bravo, and BermanBraun Productions, and before that, at the NY law firm of Weil, Gotshal & Manges. During all that, he has more or less constantly been going to the movies and watching TV, and writing about both since the 1980s. His film reviews also currently appear on and In addition, he is co-writer of an episode of the television series "Felicity."