OPENINGS: THE INTRUDER (Screen Gems/Sony) performed on target with $11M, and given the massive competition and the fates of the weekend’s other arrivals, that counted as a win. It still wasn’t anything to get excited about, considering that similar Screen Gems releases like When The Bough Breaks ($14.2M), No Good Deed ($24.3M) and The Perfect Guy ($25.9M) all opened better. Intruder may find tough sledding overseas, and with $30M+ in worldwide production/marketing costs, it’s not likely to get much past breakeven.
LONG SHOT (Good Universe/Lionsgate) only managed a $10M opening (and we’ll see in finals if it stays ahead of The Night Before‘s $9.9M), another nail in the coffin of the big-screen rom-com genre. It couldn’t even reach the $14.2M start for Isn’t It Romantic from February. What’s notable here is the apparent sharp disconnect between critical response (83% on Rotten Tomatoes) and audience reactions. Even though Long Shot was intended as a mainstream, viewer-friendly entertainment, it had lackluster scores in exit polling, and only bumped up 4% on Saturday (The Intruder gained 7%, despite its typically front-loaded genre). Audiences seemed to reject Long Shot on its merits, and unless a more friendly second wave shows up, word of mouth may not be kind. The response wasn’t any more enthusiastic overseas, where it earned only $3.3M in 22 markets.
UGLYDOLLS (Alibaba/STX) was a clear miscalculation by all concerned, with a lousy $8.5M weekend on costs that will top $100M worldwide. It qualifies as a China co-production, so if there’s an audience for it there, the studio will get a bigger cut, but that’s likely only to limit its losses.
EL CHICANO (Briarcliff) launched in 605 theatres with a quiet $700K, translating into a $1200 weekend per-theatre average.
HOLDOVERS: Somewhat surprisingly, AVENGERS: ENDGAME (Marvel/Disney) may be better placed to beat Avatar‘s $2.79B all-time worldwide box office record than The Force Awakens‘s $936.7M record in the US. Domestically, Endgame dropped 59% to $145.8M from last week’s monumental start, which is a notch steeper than Infinity War‘s 56% Weekend 2 drop, and not quite at Force Awakens‘ $149.2M Weekend 2 total. Currently, Endgame is $79.6M ahead of Force Awakens, but that film was just beginning Christmas week, with giant numbers to come every day, and a lot of the lead will erode over the next week. As of now, it seems as though Endgame may wind up with around $900M in the US. Overseas, however, Endgame had a gigantic $282.2M weekend, putting its international total at $1.57B. It’s now at $2.19B worldwide, about $1M ahead of Titanic and with only Avatar ahead. It seems as though it might be able to get narrowly past $2.8B worldwide, although of course some of its fate will depend on upcoming competition.
Stablemate CAPTAIN MARVEL (Marvel/Disney) continued to draft on Endgame in the US, down 49% to $4.3M as it heads to $430M, firmly behind only Black Panther and the 4 Avengers movies in the MCU. Overseas, it’s at $699.3M after a $1.2M weekend.
BREAKTHROUGH (20th/Disney) had the best hold in the Top 10, down 42% to $3.9M, although even a $45M US total would fail to hit the breakout numbers of Heaven Is For Real ($91.4M) or Miracles From Heaven ($61.7M).
THE CURSE OF LA LLORONA (New Line/Warners) fell 57% to $3.5M, still on its way to $55M in the US. Overseas, it’s at $55.4M after a $5.8M weekend in all major markets.
SHAZAM (DC/New Line/Warners) dropped 56% to $2.5M, en route to $140M in the US. It’s at $220.4M overseas after a $2.3M weekend in all major territories. At $365M worldwide, it’s going to be less of a moneymaker than buzz had initially expected.
LITTLE (Legendary/Universal) lost 58% to $1.5M, and may pass $40M in the US. It’s in only 13 overseas territories, where it earned $400K for a $7.5M international total.
DUMBO (Disney) lost hundreds of theatres and dropped 59% to $1.4M, unlikely to see $115M in the US. Overseas, it’s at $229M after a $4M weekend in 34 markets.
LIMITED RELEASE: NON-FICTION (IFC) had a sedate start with a $14.5M average at 2 arthouses. SHADOW (Well Go) averaged $7500 at 4. RED JOAN (IFC) expanded to 139 with a dull $1800 average. THE WHITE CROW (Sony Classics) averaged $5200 at 19. HESBURGH (O’Malley) averaged $1900 at 36. HER SMELL (Gunpowder & Sky) could only muster a $500 average at 63.
NEXT WEEKEND: The other studios continue to tiptoe around Endgame with counterprogramming, much of it aimed at female-skewing audiences and families due to Mother’s Day. They include POKEMON: DETECTIVE PIKACHU (Warners), THE HUSTLE (United Artists/MGM) and POMS (STX), although TOLKIEN (Fox Searchlight) will seek a fantasy audience in part. Limited releases include Kenneth Branagh’s ALL IS TRUE (Sony Classics).
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