OPENINGS: Pundits have been quick to celebrate the current fade of the comic book genre, but the truth is that Hollywood hasn’t yet found anything to reliably replace it at the top of the box office. After years of Marvel sagas kicking off the summer movie season with extravagant grosses, this year the studio’s lone 2024 release, the presumed blockbuster Deadpool & Wolverine, has been pushed to July as the result of strike delays and other MCU problems, while DC’s relaunch won’t happen until 2025. That left theaters with THE FALL GUY (Universal) to launch the season, and the numbers were even lower than the most unenthusiastic projections at $28.5M. Universal went all-in on marketing the action-romcom, and combined with the production budget, costs may be in the neighborhood of $250M, which will be extremely difficult to recoup. It doesn’t appear that help will come from overseas, as the film earned only $25.4M in 78 markets (the international total is $36.9M including a few pre-US territories). In addition, the path to a lengthy run like those of the somewhat similar Lost City and Bullet Train may be blocked by Fall Guy‘s place in the calendar: while the earlier films opened in spring and late summer respectively, facing little A-level competition, big-budget openings will be pouring in on a weekly basis for the next 2+ months.
Boosted by a tremendous “May the 4th” Saturday, the re-release of STAR WARS CHAPTER I: THE PHANTOM MENACE (20th/Lucasfilm/Disney) was solid with $8.1M, plus $6.4M overseas.
One of the quieter issues in Hollywood’s executive suites has been the increasing softness of the low-budget horror genre, which had been the most dependable source of cash around, but which may have simply hit diminishing returns as every studio jumped into the field, leading to a genre opening (sometimes more than one) virtually every weekend. TAROT (Screen Gems/Sony) managed just $6.5M, following $10.3M for Abigail, $8.4M for The First Omen, $5.3M for Immaculate, $9.9M for Imaginary and $11.3M for Night Swim. Even with modest costs, these projects have to be produced and marketed, and they’re no longer looking like a “sure thing.” Tarot also earned $3.7M overseas.
The animated DRAGONKEEPER (Viva) managed a minimal $430K in 760 theaters.
HOLDOVERS: CHALLENGERS (MGM/Amazon) dropped 49% to $7.6M, which was decent but not suggestive of a profitable long run. It may top $50M in the US, and has $22.8M overseas.
GODZILLA X KONG: THE NEW EMPIRE (Legendary/Warners) continued to hold well, down 38% to $4.5M in its 6th weekend and inching its way to $200M in the US. It’s considerably more monstrous overseas, with $358.8M thus far.
CIVIL WAR (A24) fell 48% to $3.6M in its 4th weekend, and seems likely to run out of gas before it can match the studio’s $77.2M record from Everything Everywhere All At Once. The international total is $33.7M.
UNSUNG HERO (Lionsgate) plunged 61% to $3M, and may not get much past $20M in the US. It hasn’t opened overseas.
ABIGAIL (Universal) lost 53% to $2.3M in its 3rd weekend, and might reach $30M in the US, with only $12M internationally thus far.
GHOSTBUSTERS: FROZEN EMPIRE (Columbia/Sony) was down 45% to $1.8M in its 7th weekend, and will likely end up $15M behind Afterlife‘s $129.4M US total (on higher costs). The overseas total is $85.2M, making up part of the shortfall as Afterlife totaled $75M.
THE MINISTRY OF UNGENTLEMANLY WARFARE (Lionsgate) slid 58% to $1.6M in its 3rd weekend, unlikely to reach $25M in the US. The international release thus far as been negligible.
LIMITED RELEASE: Strong reviews (88% on Rotten Tomatoes) brought I SAW THE TV GLOW (A24) to a merely OK $29K weekend per-theater average at 4 NY/LA locations. WILDCAT (Oscilloscope) averaged $19K at 3. EVIL DOES NOT EXIST (Sideshow/Janus) averaged $15K at 3. NOWHERE SPECIAL (Cohen) expanded to 31 with a $1K average.
NEXT WEEKEND: The franchise arrival is KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES (20th/Disney), while limited releases include POOLMAN (Vertical).
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