Behind the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 6.20.2022

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OPENINGS:  LIGHTYEAR (Pixar/Disney) was a tricky attempt to extend the hugely lucrative Toy Story franchise, both a prequel and a spinoff that featured a different version of the titular character than the one audiences have loved for decades.  Disney didn’t manage to convince fans that it was essential viewing, and the result was a $51M start ($55M with the Monday Juneteenth holiday) that was considerably below expectations.  Nor did it find a welcome overseas, where it launched with $34.6M in 43 territories.  With $300M+ in production/marketing costs, and with Minions just 2 weeks away, Lightyear may not be able to turn a profit from theatrical release.

HOLDOVERS:  The fact that JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION (Universal) unexpectedly retained the #1 slot at the box office didn’t mean it held particularly well.  Its 60% drop to $58.7M ($64M with Monday) was slightly worse than Fallen Kingdom‘s 59% Weekend 2 drop to $60.9M.  Overall, Dominion is so far very much in line with Fallen Kingdom, and should end up with a US total just behind that film’s $417.7M.  The franchise overperforms internationally, and Dominion has $372.4M after a $76.1M weekend in 76 markets, with Japan still to open.

TOP GUN: MAVERICK (Paramount) has become a true box office phenomenon, down just 15% in its 4th weekend to $44M ($48M with Monday).  Although that number includes the aggressive, assumption that Maverick will be so much the Fathers Day movie of choice that it will be the only current release with a Saturday-to-Sunday bump, that doesn’t seem unreasonable.  Maverick may pass $500M in the US in the next week, and $600M is very much on the table, which would make it one of the top dozen releases in US history.  Overseas, Maverick is flying only a bit lower, with $419M after a $39.7M weekend in 64 territories, and with South Korea ahead.

DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS (Marvel/Disney) also held well, down 20% to $4.2M in its 7th weekend ($4.6M with Monday) and heading toward $415M in the US, which would make it the #8 Marvel release.  Multiverse of Madness also has $537.4M overseas, but may not quite reach $1B worldwide.

THE BOB’S BURGERS MOVIE (20th/Disney) fell 55% to $1.1M in its 4th weekend ($1.3M with Monday), and won’t get past $35M in the US.  It has $2.1M in early international release.

THE BAD GUYS (DreamWorks Animation/Universal, also on VOD) dropped 61% to $980K in its 9th weekend ($1.1M with Monday), and doesn’t seem to have enough juice to hit $100M in the US.  It’s stronger overseas with $142M.

EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE (A24) lost more than half its theaters and still dipped just 27% to $960K in its 13th weekend ($1.2M with Monday), and may stretch to $70M in the US.  It has $21.9M overseas.

LIMITED RELEASE:  BRIAN & CHARLES (Focus/Universal) opened at 279 theaters and only averaged $700 per-theater over the 3-day weekend.  The indie horror movie ABANDONED (Vertical, also on VOD) averaged $1100 at 54.  OFFICIAL COMPETITION (IFC) averaged $8500 at 4 NY/LA arthouses.  THE PHANTOM OF THE OPEN (Sony Classics) expanded to 97 and averaged $800.  MAD GOD (IFC) widened to 26 and averaged $1300.  LOST ILLUSIONS (Music Box) expanded to 9 with an $1800 average.

NEXT WEEKEND:  ELVIS (Warners) will attempt to find a non-franchise toehold in the market, and THE BLACK PHONE (Blumhouse/Universal) will seek the low-budget horror crowd.