Behind the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 6.30.2024

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OPENINGS:  A QUIET PLACE: DAY ONE (Paramount) handily exceeded expectations with $53M in the US, better than its predecessors ($50.2M and $47.5M respectively, although Part II earned $57.1M over its 4-day holiday launch).  It was particularly impressive because Day One featured a different cast and creative team for the most part, suggesting that A Quiet Place may be a true rebootable franchise.  It also had relatively reasonable costs for a summer tentpole, around $150M including worldwide marketing, which bodes well for profit.  Day One was similarly solid overseas with $45.5M from 59 territories.

Prospects seem shaky at best for HORIZON: AN AMERICAN SAGA – CHAPTER 1 (Territory/New Line/Warners) after an $11M start.  It’s famously a personal risk for Kevin Costner to the tune of $38M or more.  Although the split in economics between Chapter 1 and August’s Chapter 2 aren’t entirely clear, reportedly Chapter 1 cost $125M+ including marketing, with Warners serving as a US distributor for hire with no financial investment.  Even if Costner’s older audience shows up in larger numbers for home viewing via VOD, streaming and eventual cable runs, it’s hard to see a scenario where the film reaches breakeven.  No overseas box office has been reported, but westerns have historically had a tough time outside the US (True Grit saw only 32% of its worldwide box office internationally, although Costner’s own Dances With Wolves was an exception, with 57% of its business off-shore).

The Indian-language KALKI 2898 AD (Prath) brought in $5.5M at just 1049 theaters, a better weekend per-theater average than Horizon.

BLUE LOCK: EPISODE NAGI (Crunchyroll/Sony) had a soft start with the anime audience at $1.1M at 857 theaters.  However, it has $10.2M overseas.

DADDIO (Sony Classics) attempted a low-wide arrival at 628 theaters and managed just $400K, a dismal $700 average.

HOLDOVERS:  INSIDE OUT 2 (Pixar/Disney) stayed on top in its 3rd weekend, down 43% to $57.7M.  In the US, it’s likely to become the most successful animated movie ever, passing The Incredibles 2‘s $608.6M.  It’s topped $1B worldwide after a $108M weekend in 45 international markets, and will set that animation record as well if it beats the CG Lion King‘s $1.66B.

BAD BOYS: RIDE OR DIE (Columbia/Sony) dropped 45% to $10.3M in its 4th weekend, on its way to $195M in the US, just a bit behind For Life‘s $206.3M.  The overseas total is $166.7M after a $13.1M weekend in 66 territories.

Word of mouth wasn’t kind to THE BIKERIDERS (Focus/Universal), which suffered a 66% plunge to $3.3M.  It’s unlikely to get past $25M in the US, and although the production budget was low, the film had a full-on national marketing campaign with the attendant costs.  It has $7.5M internationally after a $1.9M weekend in 53 regions.

THE GARFIELD MOVIE (Alcon/Columbia/Sony) fell 47% to $2M in its 6th weekend, and may reach $95M in the US.  It’s much stronger overseas, with $150.3M after a $2.5M weekend in 61 markets.

KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES (20th/Disney) lost 55% to $1.7M in its 8th weekend, and may not quite get to $175M in the US.  It has $221M internationally.

IF (Paramount, also on VOD) shed 51% to $1.3M in its 7th weekend, about to pass $110M in the US.  However, it’s had less overseas appeal with $74.7M to date.

THELMA (Magnolia) held fairly well, down 43% to $1.3M, perhaps able to hit $10M in the US if it can hold onto its theaters.  It hasn’t opened outside the US.

LIMITED RELEASE:  The Indian-language JATT & JULIET 3 (WHS) grossed $1.5M at only 143 theaters, a robust $10.6K weekend per-theater average.  KINDS OF KINDNESS (Searchlight/Disney) expanded to near-wide release at 490 theaters and its average shrank to $3100.  JANET PLANET (A24) widened to 315 with a low $600 average.  LAST SUMMER (Janus/Sideshow) averaged $10.1K at 3.

NEXT WEEKEND:  The line-up for the July 4th holiday runs the gamut from expected blockbuster DESPICABLE ME 4 (Illumination/Universal) to the Christian-themed SOUND OF HOPE: THE STORY OF POSSUM TROT (Angel) to slasher sequel MAXXINE (A24).