OPENINGS: SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE (Marvel/Sony Animation) flew past expectations with a $120.5M US opening, more than triple Into the Spider-Verse‘s $35.4M start in 2018. That made it the 2nd biggest opening of 2023, behind only The Super Mario Bros Movie. Across probably won’t have the 5.4x multiple that Into did (Across is more front-loaded, with a 28% Saturday drop compared to a 3% increase for Into, and Into played over Christmas week, when every day is like a weekend), but even a 2.5x multiple would make it $100M+ higher than Into‘s $190.2M US total. In addition, the production budget on Across was reportedly in the neighborhood of $100M, compared to $250M+ for many other summer blockbusters, so Across could be one of the most profitable big-budget movies of the season. The overseas result was more modest at $88.1M (42% of the worldwide total, compared to 49% for Into), but that still puts it on track to beat Into‘s $185.3M international number by $40M+.
THE BOOGEYMAN (20th/Disney) launched at the low end of expectations with $12.3M, and with around $75M in production/worldwide marketing costs, it could have a challenge hitting breakeven. The overseas start was $7.7M.
HOLDOVERS: In the US, THE LITTLE MERMAID (Disney) remained fairly close to Aladdin‘s track, down 58% to $40.6M in its 2nd weekend where Aladdin declined 53% to $42.8M. After 10 days of release, the 2 films are less than $1M apart, and Mermaid should reach $325M or so domestically. The big difference is overseas, where Mermaid has $140.5M after a $42M weekend, 43% of the worldwide total compared to Aladdin‘s 66%. Over the course of its run, that could play out to a $200-400M shortfall, and on the far end that could be the difference between profit and scraping to breakeven.
GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 (Marvel/Disney) dipped 51% to $10.2M in its 5th weekend, and now looks as though it will end below Vol 2‘s $389.8M US total, although it may still beat the original Guardians‘ $333.7M. The better news is overseas, where the total is $457.4M, on its way to surpassing Vol 2‘s $473.9M.
There’s no more lopsided US/international franchise than Fast & The Furious, and that’s even more true for FAST X (Universal). In the US, Fast X fell 60% to $9.2M in its 3d weekend, and may end up 10% or more lower than F9‘s $173M, making it the lowest result for the franchise since 2009. But 79% of the worldwide total (compared to 76% for F9) is international, where the number to date is $474.8M and could climb to $600M+. Fast X was so enormously expensive that even that may not be enough for much profit, but it will keep the franchise rolling.
THE SUPER MARIO BROS MOVIE (Illumination/Universal, also on VOD) isn’t done, down 48% to $3.4M in its 9th weekend as it heads toward a $575M US total. Overseas is a gargantuan $734M, putting the worldwide number at $1.3B.
ABOUT MY FATHER (Lionsgate) lost 51% from last week’s premiere to $2.1M, and may not pass $15M in the US. It’s had a negligible international release thus far.
THE MACHINE (Screen Gems/Sony) plunged 65% to $1.8M in its 2nd weekend, and also may not see $15M in the US, with no meaningful overseas release to date.
YOU HURT MY FEELINGS (A24) held a bit better, but a 45% drop to under $800K isn’t anything to feel great about, with a per-theater weekend average below About My Father‘s. No substantive overseas release so far.
LIMITED RELEASE: PAST LIVES (A24) launched at 4 NY/LA arthouses with a $58K weekend per-theater average, the best since Beau Is Afraid‘s $80K–but Beau is a cautionary comparison, since it only reached $7.6M in the US. SANCTUARY (Neon) expanded to 225 with a wan $800 average.
NEXT WEEKEND: TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE BEASTS (Paramount) was already one of the less buzzy would-be blockbusters of the summer, and now it will have to contend with a likely strong Weekend 2 for Across the Spider-Verse.
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