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July 10, 2022

Behind the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 7.10.2022

 

OPENINGS:  THOR: LOVE & THUNDER (Marvel/Disney) opened within expectations at $143M, although it’s worth noting that while the Friday-to-Saturday drop was steeper than those for Thor: Ragnarok and Doctor Strange In the Multiverse of Madness (39% vs. 5%/36% respectively), the studio estimate assumes a better Saturday-to-Sunday hold than both (25% vs. 27%/33%).  If the number holds, Love & Thunder will be 17% higher than Ragnarok and 24% below Dr Strange 2, which should put its eventual US total around $350M, making it #12 of the 29 MCU titles.  Overseas, Love & Thunder launched with $159M in 47 territories that included most major global markets, but not China, where Ragnarok grossed $112.2M.  Love & Thunder‘s longevity in theaters should be boosted by the fact that it’s the last true blockbuster of the summer.

HOLDOVERS:  MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU (Illumination/Universal) dropped 57% to $45.6M from last week’s opening, precisely the same dip as the Weekend 2 drop for 2015’s Minions.  The result should be close to Minions‘s $336M US total.  Overseas, Rise of Gru has $189.8M after a $56.4M weekend in 64 territories, and is currently running much lower than the first Minions, with 48% of its global total from international compared to Minions‘ 71%.

TOP GUN: MAVERICK (Paramount) continued its triumphant roll, down 40% to $15.5M in its 7th weekend, and on its way to an amazing $625M+ in the US.  Overseas is close behind, with $586.2M after a $23M weekend in 65 territories.

ELVIS (Warners) lost 40% to $11M in its 3rd weekend, and may reach $125M in the US, a strong result for a non-franchise film with an older audience.  It’s not as solid overseas with $64M to date after an $8.7M weekend in 56 markets.

JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION (Universal) was down 49% to $8.4M in its 5th weekend, on track for a $375M US total that would be just 10% lower than Fallen Kingdom.  The current overseas total is $526.1M, unlikely to get close to Fallen Kingdom‘s $892.7M.

THE BLACK PHONE (Blumhouse/Universal) continued to hold extremely well for the low-budget horror genre, down 37% to $7.7M in its 3rd weekend and headed for $85M in the US.  It has $36.8M overseas.

LIGHTYEAR (Pixar/Disney) fell 55% to $2.9M in its 4th weekend, and embarrassingly may have to stretch to match The Good Dinosaur‘s $123.1M, the low-water mark of Pixar releases (other than the truncated-by-Covid run of Onward).  Things are even worse internationally, where Lightyear has just $92.2M.

MR MALCOLM’S LIST (Bleecker Street) collapsed in its 2nd weekend, down 70% to less than $250K.  It may not even reach $3M in the US, and hasn’t yet opened overseas.

LIMITED RELEASE:  MARCEL THE SHELL WITH SHOES ON (A24) continued its steady platform release with an expansion to 48 theaters with a $7100 per-theater weekend average.  HALLELUJAH (Sony Classics) widened to 15 with a $2500 average.  FIRE (IFC) opened at 4 and averaged $6300, while FIRE OF LOVE (Neon) opened at 3 and averaged $7400.  FOURTH OF JULY (Circus King) expanded to 11, but presumably due to a lack of Louis C.K. personal appearances, plunged by 93% with a $1300 average.

NEXT WEEKEND:  Smaller titles will attempt to counterprogram the 2nd weekend of Love & Thunder, including WHERE THE CRAWDADS SING (Sony), MRS HARRIS GOES TO PARIS (Focus/Universal), and PAWS OF FURY:  THE LEGEND OF HANK (Paramount).



About the Author

Mitch Salem
MITCH SALEM has worked on the business side of the entertainment industry for 20 years, as a senior business affairs executive and attorney for such companies as NBC, ABC, USA, Syfy, Bravo, and BermanBraun Productions, and before that, at the NY law firm of Weil, Gotshal & Manges. During all that, he has more or less constantly been going to the movies and watching TV, and writing about both since the 1980s. His film reviews also currently appear on screened.com and the-burg.com. In addition, he is co-writer of an episode of the television series "Felicity."