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July 3, 2022

Behind the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 7.3.2022

 

OPENINGS:  MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU (Illumination/Universal) exceeded industry expectations with a $108.5M 3-day opening.  That’s just a bit lower than the $115.7M launch for the first Minions movie, although that was an April 2015 launch that didn’t have the benefit of a holiday Sunday.  Rise of Gru is expected to hit $127.9M over the 4-day weekend, which will set a new record for a Fri-Mon July 4th weekend.  The first Minions reached $336M in the US, and Rise of Gru should have a similar trajectory.  Notably though, Minions was far more popular overseas than in the US, with $823.4M representing 71% of its worldwide total outside the domestic market.  So far that’s not the case with Rise of Gru, which has $93.7M after a $87.2M weekend in 61 markets (France, Italy, Japan and South Korea, which represented about 15% of the Minions international total, are yet to open, and the film doesn’t currently have a release date in China, which contributed another 8% to the Minions total).

MR MALCOLM’S LIST (Bleecker Street) opted for a wide release at 1384 theaters and fared badly with a $850K weekend, equating to a $600 per-theater average.  (Monday may bring it to $1M.)

HOLDOVERS:  The market in general was cushioned by the holiday Sunday.  TOP GUN: MAVERICK (Paramount) continued to blaze its trail, down 14% to $25.5M in its 6th weekend ($32.5M with Monday), and on track to a potential $650M US total.  (If it gets to $660M, it would beat both Titanic and Jurassic World.)  Overseas, Maverick has $544.5M after a $37M weekend in 65 territories, and a $1.3B worldwide hoard seems doable, putting it in the Top 20 worldwide of all time.

ELVIS (Warners) is reporting a strong hold, down 39% to $19M, although that studio estimate assumes no Saturday-to-Sunday decline at all.  If that number holds, it’s expected to have a $24M 4-day weekend.  It’s on its way to a $125M US total, a strong result for an older-skewing, non-franchise production.  Overseas, things aren’t quite as loud with $46.2M after a $15.7M weekend in 57 markets.

JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION (Universal) dropped 42% to $15.7M in its 4th weekend ($19.2M with Monday), and may reach $375M in the US, down about 9% from Fallen Kingdom.  It has $492.7M overseas after a $26.8M weekend in 72 territories, with Japan still to open, and will end up with a sharper drop of 25% or so compared to Fallen Kingdom‘s $890.7M international total.

THE BLACK PHONE (Blumhouse/Universal) lost 48% from last week’s opening to $12.3M ($14.6M with Monday), and might exceed $75M in the US, a very good return for a low-budget, non-franchise horror entry.  It also has $27M overseas after an $8.3M weekend in 50 markets.

The one flop of the season remains LIGHTYEAR (Pixar/Disney), down 64% to $6.6M even with the holiday Sunday ($8.1M for the 4-day weekend), and unlikely to get much past $125M in the US.  It’s similarly weak overseas, where it has $82.2M after an $11.3M weekend in 45 territories.

LIMITED RELEASE:  MARCEL THE SHELL WITH SHOES ON (A24) expanded well to 22 theaters with a 3-day weekend per-theater average of $12K.  OFFICIAL COMPETITION (IFC) had a tougher time, widening to 173 with an $800 average.  THE FORGIVEN (Roadside) opened at 124 with an $1100 average.  MAD GOD (IFC) averaged $500 at 40.  The documentary HALLELUJAH (Sony) opened at 3 with a $9K average.  Louis C.K.’s self-distributed FOURTH OF JULY (Circus King) claimed a $6K average at 2, but it wasn’t clear whether that included premium-priced tickets for shows with in-person Q&As.

NEXT WEEKEND:  The last sure-thing blockbuster of the summer is the MCU’s THOR: LOVE & THUNDER (Marvel/Disney), and no other studio is coming near it.



About the Author

Mitch Salem
MITCH SALEM has worked on the business side of the entertainment industry for 20 years, as a senior business affairs executive and attorney for such companies as NBC, ABC, USA, Syfy, Bravo, and BermanBraun Productions, and before that, at the NY law firm of Weil, Gotshal & Manges. During all that, he has more or less constantly been going to the movies and watching TV, and writing about both since the 1980s. His film reviews also currently appear on screened.com and the-burg.com. In addition, he is co-writer of an episode of the television series "Felicity."