OPENINGS: MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU (Illumination/Universal) exceeded industry expectations with a $108.5M 3-day opening. That’s just a bit lower than the $115.7M launch for the first Minions movie, although that was an April 2015 launch that didn’t have the benefit of a holiday Sunday. Rise of Gru is expected to hit $127.9M over the 4-day weekend, which will set a new record for a Fri-Mon July 4th weekend. The first Minions reached $336M in the US, and Rise of Gru should have a similar trajectory. Notably though, Minions was far more popular overseas than in the US, with $823.4M representing 71% of its worldwide total outside the domestic market. So far that’s not the case with Rise of Gru, which has $93.7M after a $87.2M weekend in 61 markets (France, Italy, Japan and South Korea, which represented about 15% of the Minions international total, are yet to open, and the film doesn’t currently have a release date in China, which contributed another 8% to the Minions total).
MR MALCOLM’S LIST (Bleecker Street) opted for a wide release at 1384 theaters and fared badly with a $850K weekend, equating to a $600 per-theater average. (Monday may bring it to $1M.)
HOLDOVERS: The market in general was cushioned by the holiday Sunday. TOP GUN: MAVERICK (Paramount) continued to blaze its trail, down 14% to $25.5M in its 6th weekend ($32.5M with Monday), and on track to a potential $650M US total. (If it gets to $660M, it would beat both Titanic and Jurassic World.) Overseas, Maverick has $544.5M after a $37M weekend in 65 territories, and a $1.3B worldwide hoard seems doable, putting it in the Top 20 worldwide of all time.
ELVIS (Warners) is reporting a strong hold, down 39% to $19M, although that studio estimate assumes no Saturday-to-Sunday decline at all. If that number holds, it’s expected to have a $24M 4-day weekend. It’s on its way to a $125M US total, a strong result for an older-skewing, non-franchise production. Overseas, things aren’t quite as loud with $46.2M after a $15.7M weekend in 57 markets.
JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION (Universal) dropped 42% to $15.7M in its 4th weekend ($19.2M with Monday), and may reach $375M in the US, down about 9% from Fallen Kingdom. It has $492.7M overseas after a $26.8M weekend in 72 territories, with Japan still to open, and will end up with a sharper drop of 25% or so compared to Fallen Kingdom‘s $890.7M international total.
THE BLACK PHONE (Blumhouse/Universal) lost 48% from last week’s opening to $12.3M ($14.6M with Monday), and might exceed $75M in the US, a very good return for a low-budget, non-franchise horror entry. It also has $27M overseas after an $8.3M weekend in 50 markets.
The one flop of the season remains LIGHTYEAR (Pixar/Disney), down 64% to $6.6M even with the holiday Sunday ($8.1M for the 4-day weekend), and unlikely to get much past $125M in the US. It’s similarly weak overseas, where it has $82.2M after an $11.3M weekend in 45 territories.
LIMITED RELEASE: MARCEL THE SHELL WITH SHOES ON (A24) expanded well to 22 theaters with a 3-day weekend per-theater average of $12K. OFFICIAL COMPETITION (IFC) had a tougher time, widening to 173 with an $800 average. THE FORGIVEN (Roadside) opened at 124 with an $1100 average. MAD GOD (IFC) averaged $500 at 40. The documentary HALLELUJAH (Sony) opened at 3 with a $9K average. Louis C.K.’s self-distributed FOURTH OF JULY (Circus King) claimed a $6K average at 2, but it wasn’t clear whether that included premium-priced tickets for shows with in-person Q&As.
NEXT WEEKEND: The last sure-thing blockbuster of the summer is the MCU’s THOR: LOVE & THUNDER (Marvel/Disney), and no other studio is coming near it.
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