Behind the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 8.18.2019

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OPENINGS:  GOOD BOYS (Good Universe/Universal) easily led the weekend with $21M, a solid start for a comedy that probably had production/marketing costs under $75M.  It was somewhat frontloaded with a 12% Saturday drop, but summer Sundays have been running strong this year, so it should still have a fair weekend multiple.  Good Boys has the comedy market to itself for weeks, and with good word of mouth should reach $60M+ in the US.  It’s opened in 13 overseas markets with $2.1M.

THE ANGRY BIRDS MOVIE 2 (Sony Animation) turned out to be a franchise no one wanted.  The studio gave it a Monday night launch for a nearly week-long opening, and could still manage only $16.2M ($10.5M from Fri-Sun), a fraction of the $38.2M earned by the 3-day opening weekend for the first Angry Birds.  That one made it to $107.5M in the US, but Birds 2 may not even reach $40M.  It’s a bit stronger overseas, with $30M after a $19.2M weekend in 29 territories (including China), but won’t get close to the $244.8M of its predecessor.

47 METERS DOWN: UNCAGED (Entertainment Partners) was another soft sequel, with a $9M weekend compared to $11.2M for the original 47 Meters.  At best, it can hope for $35M in the US.

After that, things get ugly.  BLINDED BY THE LIGHT (New Line/Warners) was the latest big-studio Sundance pick-up to go bust with a $4.5M weekend.  The only positive was that its older audience contributed to a 23% Saturday bump, so it may hold well for a week or two, but a $15M US total still won’t justify what Warners paid to acquire and market it.

WHERE’D YOU GO, BERNADETTE (Annapurna/UA/MGM) was the disaster widely expected after its numerous shifts around the release schedule.  A $3.5M opening will do nothing to help its troubled studio hold together, and it may not get much past $10M in the US.

HOLDOVERS:  HOBBS & SHAW (Universal) dropped 44% to $14.4M in its 3rd weekend, and continues to be on track for $160M in the US, an OK result for a mega-production with $325M or so in production/marketing costs.  As expected, it’s much bigger overseas, where it’s at $303.3M after a $45.7M weekend in 67 markets that don’t yet include China, the world’s biggest Fast & Furious fandom, where it opens next week.

THE LION KING (Disney) declined 41% to $11.9M in its 5th weekend, just days away from hitting $500M in the US and on its way to $525M, the biggest of Disney’s “live-action” remakes.  It’s even more gigantic overseas, where it’s at $939.1M after a $33.8M weekend.  It’s already the #9 worldwide title of all time, and may still move up a notch or two.

SCARY STORIES TO TELL IN THE DARK (Columbia/Sony) fell an expected 52% to $10.1M from last week’s opening, and should be solidly profitable with a $60M US total.  It’s at $14.1M in early international release.

DORA AND THE LOST CITY OF GOLD (Nickelodeon/Paramount) lost 51% to $8.5M in its 2nd weekend, a steeper drop than a family movie wants to see.  It may reach $50M in the US, and will need help overseas against $125M in costs.  Currently, it’s at $10.7M internationally after a $6.6M weekend in 24 markets, and will continue a slow rollout into the fall.

ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD (Columbia/Sony) eased by 35% to $7.6M in its 4th weekend, and will soon pass Inglourious Basterds to become Quentin Tarantino’s #2 film in the US, behind the $162.8M for Django Unchained.  It has $66.2M overseas after a $53.7M weekend in 49 markets with a few still to come, and again looks likely to end up between Basterds and Django worldwide, which was far from a sure thing given the fact that Hollywood is much less action-oriented than Tarantino’s usual fare.

There was no good news for 3 of last weekend’s flop openings.  THE ART OF RACING IN THE RAIN (20th/Disney) dropped 46% to $4.4M and will end up around $25M in the US, with $1M so far overseas.  THE KITCHEN (New Line/Warners) fell 60% to $2.2M and may not get past $15M in the US, with overseas release still to come.  BRIAN BANKS (Bleecker Street) plunged 68% to $700K and may struggle to exceed $5M in the US, with no international release yet.

THE FAREWELL (A24) added 22% more theatres (for a total of 861) and declined by 28% to $1.5M, a per-theatre weekend average of $1700.  $20M may be too far a goal for the indie.

LIMITED RELEASE:  The High Frame Rate documentary AQUARELA (Sony Classics) opened in 5 theatres with a slow $4700 per-theatre average.  LUCE (Neon) expanded to 58 with a mild $2800 average.  AFTER THE WEDDING (Sony Classics) widened to 26 and averaged $3300.  HONEYLAND (Neon) averaged $1800 at 32.  ONE CHILD NATION (Amazon) averaged $2600 at 19.  THE NIGHTINGALE (IFC) managed a $1200 average at 39.

NEXT WEEKEND:  The end of summer pickings continue to be slim.  On Wednesday, READY OR NOT (Fox Searchlight/Disney) is an unusual genre piece for its distributor.  On Friday, the franchise installment ANGEL HAS FALLEN (Lionsgate) arrives, along with the Christian-aimed OVERCOMER (Affirm/Sony).  Limited releases include another high-profile Sundance pick-up, BRITTANY RUNS A MARATHON (Amazon).