Behind the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 9.18.2022

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OPENINGS:  THE WOMAN KING (TriStar/Sony) launched at the higher end of expectations with $19M, boosted by strong reviews (94% on Rotten Tomatoes) and enthusiastic audience response as measured by exit polls.  In the current market, with few openings arriving each week (and even fewer for Woman King‘s older female target demo), the film should have an extended run and a high multiple off its opening.  Woman King hasn’t yet opened internationally.

PEARL (A24) is claiming a $3.1M weekend, but that studio estimate assumes an extremely strong Sunday hold, so it may drop in final numbers.  Even if that estimate holds up, it’s down about 25% from the March opening of its predecessor X, which had an $11.8M US total, but apparently the very low costs of the franchise make economic sense for A24, which has already greenlit a 3rd installment.  Pearl hasn’t opened overseas, where X totaled $2.7M.

SEE HOW THEY RUN (Searchlight/Disney) arrived with $3.1M, currently a few thousand dollars below Pearl, although as noted that could shift.  However, Run likely cost considerably more than Pearl, so it faces an uncertain path to breakeven.  The film also has $4.5M overseas after a $1.9M weekend in 9 markets.

The Christian-aimed RUNNING THE BASES (UP2U) had a quiet $545K start at 1080 theaters, a $500 per-theater weekend average.

GOD’S COUNTRY (IFC) found few takers with $300K at 785 theaters, a weekend per-theater average under $400.

CONFESS, FLETCH (Paramount, also on Paramount+ and VOD) managed $260K at 516 theaters, a $500 average.

TICKET TO PARADISE (Universal) won’t reach the US until next month, but it’s already in release in 46 overseas markets, where it has $14.8M after a $12.1M weekend.

HOLDOVERS:  BARBARIAN (20th/Disney) had a very strong hold for the horror genre, down 40% to $6.3M.  It faces direct competition from Smile in 2 weeks, but in the current environment might still reach $50M in the US.  Early in its international run, it has $1M after a $500K weekend in 12 territories.

The rest of the holdovers were the familiar set of summer titles, all enjoying the relative lack of competition and the consequent slow weekend declines:  BULLET TRAIN (Columbia/Sony) down 25% to $2.5M on its way to $100M (plus $125.7M overseas after a $3.8M weekend in 64 markets); TOP GUN: MAVERICK (Paramount) down 31% to $2.2M with $715M in its sights (plus $754M overseas after a $4M weekend in 61 territories); LEAGUE OF SUPER-PETS (DC/Warners) down 18% to $2.2M and nosing toward $95M (plus $89.7M overseas after a $4.9M weekend in 76 markets); THE INVITATION (Screen Gems/Sony) down 36% to $1.7M and on its way to topping $25M (plus $8.6M overseas after a $1.5M weekend in 43 territories); and MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU (Illumination/Universal) down 24% to $1.3M, heading toward $370M (plus $549.1M after a $4.6M weekend in 84 markets).

The Indian language BRAHMASTRA PART ONE: SHIVA (Star/Disney) was very frontloaded in the US, down 76% to $1.1M and not likely to get much past $10M.  As one would expect, the bulk of its business is overseas, where it has $34.2M, $30.6M of that from India.

LIMITED RELEASE:  The David Bowie documentary MOONAGE DAYDREAM (Neon) opened an IMAX run with $1.2M in just 170 theaters, an impressive $7200 weekend per-theater average.  (By comparison, The Woman King earned $5K per theater.)  Daydream intends to expand next weekend, but it’s also going to lose a lot of its IMAX screens to the Avatar re-release, so its future is uncertain.  THE SILENT TWINS (Focus/Universal) arrived at 279 theaters with a per-theater average under $400.  HOCKEYLAND (Greenwich) widened to 148 with a $300 average.

NEXT WEEKEND:  The embattled DON’T WORRY DARLING (New Line/Warners) will finally have the chance to be judged as a movie rather than an occasion for celebrity gossip.  In addition, as noted the campaign for its Christmas sequel will get underway with a re-release of the original AVATAR (20th/Disney).