OPENINGS: THE POST (DreamWorks/Reliance/Participant/20th) expanded to wide release with $18.6M over 3 days (which should become $22M with Monday). That’s a bit better than the $15.4M 3-day start for Steven Spielberg’s Bridge of Spies, which didn’t have the benefit of a holiday weekend opening. Bridge got to $72.3M in the US, and The Post should reach that neighborhood too, but any significant upside will probably be determined by its fate in awards season, where so far it’s been rather shockingly underrepresented. In addition, Bridge of Spies took in $93.2M overseas, but The Post is a much more specifically American story and may find it more difficult to travel.
THE COMMUTER (Studiocanal/Lionsgate) is off to a soft start with $13.5M ($16M by Monday), just a bit above the $11M for Run All Night and $12.8M for A Walk Among The Tombstones, which didn’t open over holiday weekends. Despite the simplistic revenue stream calculations being shouted into certain box office pundits’ ears, presumably from studio sources, a $35M US total isn’t likely to provide any profit to Lionsgate, even if its financial exposure is limited to domestic marketing costs.
PADDINGTON 2 (Studiocanal/Warners) had a disappointing $10.6M 3-day weekend ($14M with Monday), down 45% from the 4-day weekend for the first Paddington (which also opened over MLK weekend). It’s probably going to earn just $40-45M in the US, a loss for Warners with its $30M acquisition costs and more than that in marketing figured in. The worldwide picture is much rosier, with $125.3M overseas to date, but Warners won’t get the benefit of that.
PROUD MARY (Screen Gems/Sony) is claiming a suspiciously round $10M for the 3-day weekend ($12M with Monday), but even if those numbers hold, there’s nothing good about them. Proud Mary may have even more trouble drawing an audience overseas (Screen Gems’ Takers, which did much better than Proud Mary will do in the US at $57.7M, managed just $11.3M outside the US), and there’s little hope of recouping a $75M+ worldwide investment.
I, TONYA (Neon) nipped at the low edge of wide release with an expansion to 517 theatres, where it averaged $6400 over the 3-day weekend. That’s a notch below the $7200 that 3 Billboards averaged at 614, but still a fair beginning for a film that should see some awards momentum, especially in the Supporting Actress category.
HOLDOVERS: JUMANJI: WELCOME TO THE JUNGLE (Columbia/Sony) is still at the top of its game, down just 27% over the 3-day weekend to $27M ($35M with Monday). It might last all the way to $350M in the US, thanks to little competition for the family adventure audience over the next month. Overseas, it’s at $383M after an $81M weekend (now in all major territories except Japan), despite a mildly disappointing ($40M) opening in China, and should easily top $800M worldwide.
INSIDIOUS: THE LAST KEY (Blumhouse/Universal) fell 59% in its 2nd weekend to $12.1M ($14.5M with Monday), still en route to a not-insignificant $60M, considering its tiny budget. It’s at $44.2M overseas (where it’s released by Sony) after a $17.7M weekend in 40 markets, and although its US total will be behind Insidious 2‘s $83.6M, it could beat that chapter’s international $78.3M.
THE GREATEST SHOWMAN (20th) continued to please crowds with the smallest decline in the Top 10, down 14% to $11.8M ($15.5M with Monday), on its way to an implausible $125M in the US. It’s at $100.1M overseas after a $15.2M weekend in 71 territories, with France, China and Japan to come, and despite its slow start, it’s now likely to see some measurable profit.
STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI (Lucasfilm/Disney) is running out of fuel, down 53% in its 5th weekend to $11.3M ($14M by Monday). It continues to pile up milestones, and should become the 6th film to top $600M in the US by next weekend, while overseas it’s at $673.4M after a $19M weekend, putting its worldwide total at $1.26B, enough to pass Beauty & The Beast as the worldwide #1 for 2017. It should top Frozen‘s $1.28B worldwide, but probably not the final Harry Potter‘s $1.34B. That will put it around 36% below The Force Awakens worldwide, a few percentage points more than Disney may have hoped.
PITCH PERFECT 3 (Gold Circle/Perfect World/Universal) dropped 45% to $5.7M ($7M with Monday), still on track for $105M in the US. Overseas, it’s at $67.7M after a $8.3M weekend in 42 territories. On $150M in worldwide costs, it should be somewhat profitable, but not to the extent that Universal needs to regret ending the franchise.
DARKEST HOUR (Focus/Universal) had a good awards week and slipped just 25% from last weekend to $4.5M ($5.5M with Monday), and it has a path to $50M+ in the US, especially if Gary Goldman wins SAG next weekend. It may seem counterintuitive that such a British story would open in the US 2 months before reaching the UK, but Darkest Hour was always an awards play, and this weekend’s $10.6M international weekend included $5.9M from its home ground premiere. Its international total is $19M, and it will hope to keep building between now and the Oscars.
MOLLY’S GAME (H Brothers/STX) showed moderate traction with a 43% drop to $3.9M ($4.7M with Monday), and should get to $30M in the US, with some upside if the film draws Oscar attention.
THE SHAPE OF WATER (Fox Searchlight) is another awards play, and it was down a mere 14% from last weekend despite shedding about 10% of its theatres with a $2.7M 3-day weekend ($3.2M by Monday), on its way to $35M in the US with plenty of potential awards upside. Outside the US, it’s begun its campaign in Guillermo del Toro’s home country of Mexico with $3.2M.
3 BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI (Fox Searchlight) more than tripled its pre-Golden Globes theatre count to 1022 and rose to $2.3M for the 3-day weekend ($2.7M with Monday), also on track to $35M in the US with lots of awards runway ahead. Its international run is just getting started, but it’s at $10.1M after a $7.7M weekend in 12 territories.
LIMITED RELEASE: PHANTOM THREAD (Focus/Universal) widened to 62 theatres and averaged $18.5K over the 3-day weekend, a notch better than the $14K average Darkest Hour had at 53. CALL ME BY YOUR NAME (Sony Classics), though, expanded to 174 theatres with a mild $4100 average, much less than the $11K The Shape of Water averaged at 158. FILM STARS DON’T DIE IN LIVERPOOL (Sony Classics) averaged a dim $3700 at 9. HAPPY END (Sony Classics) was even lower with a $2200 average at 11. THE INSULT (Cohen) opened at 3 with a $8300 average.
NEXT WEEKEND: A pair of action movies do battle: military-themed 12 STRONG (Warners) and heist thriller DEN OF THIEVES (STX). Counterprogramming comes from the PG romance FOREVER MY GIRL (Roadside). In addition, Phantom Thread and HOSTILES (Entertainment Services) expand to wide release, the latter much wider than the former.
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