Behind the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 11.5.2016

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OPENINGS:  THOR: RAGNAROK (Marvel/Disney) exceeded high expectations, which is no mean feat for a Marvel blockbuster.  In the US, its weekend was $121M, 42% ahead of both Thor: The Dark World and last November’s Doctor Strange.  (The one slight negative was that its 5% Saturday drop was a bit worse than the 1%/4% dips for those films, although still well within their range.)  Ragnarok should end up around $300M in the US, which would put it in Marvel’s Top 10 (of 17).  Overseas, Ragnarok had already opened in half the world last week, and this week it arrived just about everywhere else for a $151.4M weekend (including $55.6M in China), and its total so far is $306M.  Worldwide, Ragnarok should settle between the first Guardians of the Galaxy ($773.3M) and the second ($863.5M), the only question mark being whether Justice League can steal its superhero thunder in 2 weeks.

A BAD MOMS CHRISTMAS (H Brothers/TPM/STX) took 5 days to reach $21.6M ($17M over the 3-day weekend), while its predecessor earned $23.8M in 3.  We’ll know much more about how Xmas will shake out after next weekend–the first Bad Moms didn’t have a weekend drop over 42% until its 7th week of release–but the opening suggests that the sequel will be considerably below Bad Moms‘s $113.3M US total.  The good news is that this is a moderately-priced franchise, so even a 40% drop to $68M might manage a small profit.  Overseas, Bad Moms Xmas started its run in 15 markets with $6.7M.

LBJ (Electric) opened in 659 theatres with a lousy $1700 per-theatre average for a $1.1M total, and will soon be making its way to digital and on-demand release.

MURDER ON THE ORIENT EXPRESS (20th) doesn’t arrive in the US until next weekend, but it began its run in the UK with $6.5M.

COCO (Pixar/Disney) is still more than 2 weeks from US release, but it’s already earned $27.6M after 10 days in Mexico alone.

HOLDOVERS:  JIGSAW (Lionsgate) had a 60% post-Halloween collapse to $6.7M, and will finish in the US with about $40M, below all the Saw movies except 2009’s Saw VI.  Overseas, it’s at $30.7M after a $13.7M weekend in 62 markets, with a few more territories still to open.

BOO 2! A MADEA HALLOWEEN (Lionsgate) had a similar 53% post-Halloween hangover to $4.7M, and will get to $50-55M in the US, down about 30% from the first Boo and in the bottom echelon of Madea titles.

GEOSTORM (Skydance/RatPac/Warners) is a disaster in the US, where it fell 49% to $3M and may not reach $35M.  Overseas, though, it’s at $153.6M after a $17.3M weekend in 65 markets ($57.4M of that total is from China), with Japan opening in 2018.  It’s still not going to get anywhere near breakeven, but the losses will be moderate rather than awful.

HAPPY DEATH DAY (Blumhouse/Universal) dropped 45% to $2.8M and will probably run out of steam before hitting $60M in the US.  That’s still fine for a low-budget horror product, and it’s also at $25.4M overseas after a $2.7M weekend in 46 markets.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SERVICE (DreamWorks/Reliance/Universal) had a decent Weekend 2 hold, down 41%, but that still put the weekend at $2.3M, and it’s unlikely the film will reach $15M in the US, with little evident overseas appeal.

BLADE RUNNER 2049 (Alcon/Sony/Warners) is limping toward the finish line.  In the US, it fell 46% to $2.2M, on its way to $90M.  Overseas, it’s at $154.5M after a $4.9M weekend in 61 territories, not enough to cover its enormous production and marketing costs.

LET THERE BE LIGHT (Atlas) increased its theatre count by 72% to 642, but still dropped 6% from last weekend to $1.6M with a per-theatre average of $2500.  By comparison, God’s Not Dead earned $9.2M when it was in 780 theatres, a $11.8K average.

SUBURBICON (Black Bear/Paramount) crashed by 59% to $1.2M, and it’s a total loss that won’t reach $10M in the US.

VICTORIA & ABDUL (Focus/Universal) displayed impressive staying power, slipping just 26% (to $1.2M) even as it left 24% of its theatres.  It’s well poised to run through the holidays, and depending on whether it can find traction with critics’ awards groups, it could get over $30M in the US.  (It also has $37M overseas.)

LIMITED RELEASE:  LADY BIRD (A24) is off to a great start with the highest per-theatre average of any film this year, $94K at 4 NY/LA arthouses.  (That number may come down a bit in finals if Sunday isn’t as strong as the studio is projecting.)  LAST FLAG FLYING (Amazon/Lionsgate) wasn’t in its league with a $10.5K average at 4.  THE FLORIDA PROJECT (A24) continued its gradual expansion, now at 189 theatres with a $3500 average.  LOVING VINCENT (Good Deed) widened to 205 with a $2900 average.  THE KILLING OF A SACRED DEER (A24) is expanding surprisingly well for such an austere drama, with a $4700 average at 86.  GOODBYE CHRISTOPHER ROBIN (Fox Searchlight) was tepid with a $1300 average after widening to 262.  WONDERSTRUCK (Amazon/Lionsgate) expanded to 121 with a mild $1900 average.  The documentary JANE (Abramorama/NatGeo) averaged $4200 at 55.  THE SQUARE (Magnolia) averaged $5400 at 19.  NOVITIATE (Sony Classics) was slow with a $3400 average at 16.

NEXT WEEKEND:  It’s a break week between superhero epics, and as noted Murder On the Orient Express will be pulling into its US stations.  In addition, DADDY’S HOME 2 (Paramount) will go for the family comedy crowd.  The major awards hopeful in limited release is THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI (Fox Searchlight).