OPENINGS: Even though THE DISASTER ARTIST (A24) was at just 840 theatres, its $6.4M weekend had no trouble topping its woeful newcomer competition. That total (which may come down a bit in finals, because A24 tends to be optimistic in its Sunday estimates) translated into a $7700 per-theatre weekend average, notably better than the $5100 Lady Bird had when it reached 791 theatres. However, Disaster Artist appears to be more front-loaded, with a 17% Saturday drop (Lady Bird actually rose 2% on the Saturday of its 791-theatre weekend), so the studio may continue a steady expansion through the holidays in order to keep the weekend totals high even if the per-theatre averages drop more sharply. Disaster Artist should also benefit from this week’s Golden Globe nominations, as one of the most prominent Comedy/Musical titles in the field.
The unintentionally ironically-titled JUST GETTING STARTED (Broad Green) was hated by critics when they were finally allowed to see it, and audiences had little interest, with $3.2M at 2161 theatres, an awful $1500 per-theatre average. It should be available for streaming fairly soon.
HOLDOVERS: COCO (Pixar/Disney) rode the lack of new competition to a 3rd consecutive weekend on top of the box office, down just 34% to $18.3M. That was the same Weekend 3 drop that Moana had last year, and if the films play out through the holidays similarly, Coco should end up at $230M or so in the US, the same neighborhood as Pixar’s Brave and WALL-E. Coco is also busy internationally, where it’s at $254M after a $55.3M weekend ($128M is from China alone), and is still in only 35 territories. It’s well-positioned to pass Moana‘s $394.6M overseas total.
JUSTICE LEAGUE (RatPac/DC/Warners) fell 42% to $9.6M, and may not hit $250M in the US. Things are better overseas, where it’s at $401.3M after a $15.4M weekend in all major markets, but gigantic competition is just around the corner, and Justice League may not be able to claw its way to $700M worldwide–it’s not even clear if it can pass Man of Steel‘s $668M, which would put it at the bottom of the DC pile. It’s no surprise that Warners is reportedly reorganizing its DC film operation.
WONDER (Participant/Walden/Lionsgate) dropped 30% to $8.5M, passing the $100M milestone in the US and with plenty of road ahead. It won’t be the same level of hit overseas, but it’s at $29.3M after an $11.4M weekend in 56 markets.
THOR: RAGNAROK (Marvel/Disney) is still in the mix on its 6th weekend, down 36% to $6.3M, and aiming at $320M in the US, which would make it #8 of the 17 Marvel universe titles. Overseas, it’s at $532M after a $3.1M weekend. If it can pass $863.2M worldwide (it’s currently at $833.2M), it will supplant Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 as Marvel’s #6.
In the US, DADDY’S HOME 2 (Paramount) and MURDER ON THE ORIENT EXPRESS (20th) are virtually tied, with Daddy’s 2 down 21% to $6M for $91.2M to date, and Murder down 25% to $5.1M for $92.7M. But overseas the story is very different: Daddy’s 2 is at $51.2M after an $11.6M weekend in 59 territories and just a few left to open, while Murder is a $182M smash after a $20.1M weekend also in 59 markets. Add to that the fact that Murder cost considerably less to produce than Daddy’s 2, and it’s clear which is a healthier franchise.
The good news for THE STAR (Affirm/Sony) is that it had the best hold in the Top 10, down a tiny 10% in its 4th weekend. The bad news is that its weekend was still just $3.7M, and it will have a struggle in holding onto its 2976 theatres into the holidays. It’s had very limited international release and is at $4.6M.
LADY BIRD (A24) and 3 BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI (Fox Searchlight) remain close at the box office. Lady Bird increased its theatre count by 30% to 1557 and had a $3.5M weekend, translating to a $2300 per-theatre average. 3 Billboards widened by 13% to 1620 for a $2.9M weekend and $1800 average. So far, Lady Bird is scoring more awards, making this week’s Golden Globe and SAG nominations critical for 3 Billboards.
LIMITED RELEASE: I, TONYA (Neon) had a strong opening (boosted as usual for awards contenders by many star-studded Q&As), averaging $61K at 4 in NY/LA. THE SHAPE OF WATER (Fox Searchlight) aggressively expanded from 2 theatres to 41 and averaged $27K, a bit below Lady Bird‘s $32K average at 37. DARKEST HOUR (Focus/Universal) was a notch below with a $15K average at 53. CALL ME BY YOUR NAME (Sony Classics), wary of its potential to be characterized as a niche art film, is being much more cautious, spreading to a mere 9 theatres, where it averaged $32K, a 55% decline despite still being in a single-digit number of theatres. WONDER WHEEL (Amazon) is an awards season also-ran with a $3300 average at 47.
NEXT WEEKEND: The question for STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI (LucasFilm/Disney) is how close it an come to the history-making $248M opening of The Force Awakens. (Rogue One started with $155.1M last year, but that was a spin-off title.) If the reviews line up with the social media reaction after last night’s premiere, the contest could be close. Meanwhile, FERDINAND (Blue Sky/20th) will try to scrape some families with young children from the PG-13 Last Jedi behemoth.
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