OPENINGS: LOGAN (TSG/20th) was in full control of the weekend at $85.3M, and the most impressive part of that may be the 5% Saturday drop, an even better hold than Deadpool‘s 10% and the 12% for The Wolverine, let alone the 22% for the last X-Men movie. That suggests excellent word of mouth, and although Logan faces heavy competition over the next few weeks, it could end up as high as $250M in the US, which would make it the highest-grossing entry in the X-Men universe other than Deadpool. Logan also started with a $152.5M leap overseas, although comparisons are difficult because films have different release patterns: Deadpool, for example, never had a China run, and X-Men: Apocalypse didn’t open there until Week 2, while Logan, which earned $46.3M from China this weekend, is essentially playing worldwide (except Japan). It’s too soon to tell whether Logan can flirt with the worldwide totals of Deadpool ($783.1M) or X-Men: Days of Future Past ($747.9M), but in any case it’s a huge hit, the #5 R-rated opening of all time in the US behind Deadpool, The Matrix Reloaded, American Sniper and The Hangover Part II.
THE SHACK (Lionsgate) provided effective counterprogramming with a $16.1M opening (and that number, if anything, may be underestimated by its studio considering the number of people who go to inspirational movies after church on Sunday). That’s better than the $14.8M for Miracles From Heaven, which reached $61.7M in the US.
Other attempts to counterprogram Logan were less successful. The YA Groundhog Day BEFORE I FALL (Open Road) proved that one death was enough with $4.9M, unlikely to recoup its roughly $25M in production/marketing costs.
TABLE 19 (Fox Searchlight) was barely on the marketing radar, presumably because Searchlight was obligated to give it a national run and had decided that there was no point in waiting more money than absolutely necessary. Its $1.6M from 869 theatres will put it in home release very soon.
HOLDOVERS: Although the big numbers this weekend belong to Logan, the most exceptional performance may belong to GET OUT (QC/Blumhouse/Universal), which defied the conventions of the horror genre by falling just 22% in its 2d weekend (to $26.1M)–and against blockbuster competition, no less. Compare that to the 47% drop for The Conjuring, or even the 29% for Insidious, two recent hits that spawned franchises. It’s also much better than the 36% drop for Split a few weeks ago. Get Out seems to be on track for $125M in the US, a huge profit on worldwide costs that might not reach $75M. In the bigger picture, since movie studios go where the money is, one wonders if we’re going to get a spate of socially conscious horror films over, let’s say, the next 4 years.
THE LEGO BATMAN MOVIE (Warners Animation) fell 39% to $11.7M, and might get to $170M in the US, about 35% below The Lego Movie. Overseas, it’s at $108.2M after a $10.4M weekend in 60 markets that included a blah $3.6M opening in China. LEGO Batman is running out of territories (Australia and Japan are still to come, which contributed around $30M to The LEGO Movie‘s $211.4M foreign total), and while it will certainly be profitable at a $325M worldwide ultimate, Warners may have been too quick to go all-in on the franchise.
JOHN WICK: CHAPTER 2 (Summit/Lionsgate) dropped 50% to $4.7M, and will probably end its US run at $90-95M. Overseas, it’s at $61.5M after a $5.9M weekend almost everywhere in the world except for Italy, Spain and Australia. The first John Wick made its real financial mark in post-theatrical revenues, and the full picture on the sequel won’t really be known until those come in, although the results should be successful enough to keep the franchise going on a modest level.
THE GREAT WALL (Legendary/Universal) kept zooming down in the US, down 62% to $3.5M and groping for $50M. Reports have estimated losses at $75M despite the $171M earned in China, because of $300M or so in costs and lukewarm reaction not just here, but in the rest of the world, where it’s at $108.9M after a $6.5M weekend with just Japan to come.
FIFTY SHADES DARKER (Universal) fell 55% to $3.5M in the US, and will end up at $115-120M, 30% below Fifty Shades of Grey. The franchise makes its money overseas, but even there, it’s at $242.6M after a $10.7M weekend in most of the world except Japan (a negligible territory for Grey), and that’s likely to end up at least 30% below Grey‘s $404.8M.
Despite its ultra-dramatic Best Picture win and a near-tripling of its theatre count, MOONLIGHT (A24) had an Oscar bump that only totaled $2.5M, giving it a per-theatre average of $1600 that was still below the weekend averages for HIDDEN FIGURES (20th) ($2400) and LA LA LAND (Summit/Lionsgate) ($2100). Moonlight is unlikely to get much past $30M at the US box office, and still hasn’t arrived overseas. The numbers are much bigger for the films it vanquished: Figures slipped 34% to $3.8M in the US for a running total of $158.8M, plus $36.2M in early overseas release; while La La Land dropped 37% for $3M and a $145.7M US running total, plus a remarkable $250.7M overseas after a $11.1M weekend in just about all of the world.
LIMITED RELEASE: THE LAST WORD (Bleecker Street) had a mediocre start at 4 theatres with a $8900 average despite in-theatre Q&As. A UNITED KINGDOM (Focus/Universal) remained unexciting with an expansion to 271 theaters that gave it a $2300 average. THE SALESMAN (Cohen) got some mileage from its Foreign Film Oscar win, widening by about 20% to 115 theatres and increasing from last weekend by 65% for a $2300 average. A couple of Oscar also-rans expanded, with MY LIFE AS A ZUCCHINI (GKids) at 29 theatres with a $1500 average, and LAND OF MINE (Sony Classics) at 20 with a $2000 average.
NEXT WEEKEND: With Logan poised for a strong 2d weekend, and Beauty & the Beast just 2 weekends away, will KONG: SKULL ISLAND (Warners) be March’s odd blockbuster out? The studio is certainly worried about the possibility, and has been spending marketing dollars on the CG spectacle like it’s a summer tentpole. Its good news is that it faces no mainstream competition for the weekend. Limited releases include PERSONAL SHOPPER (IFC) and THE SENSE OF AN ENDING (CBS/Lionsgate).
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