OPENINGS: TOMB RAIDER (MGM/Warners) was a reboot that no one asked for, and although franchise movies aren’t star vehicles, the casting of Alicia Vikander in the lead didn’t excite anyone either. Its $23.5M US weekend won’t get it very far in recouping $200M+ in production/marketing costs. Things are better overseas, where Tomb Raider earned $84.5M (for a total $102.5M with last week’s scattered openings), but $41M of that number is from an OK China opening, and it’s now playing in all major markets except Japan. That leaves its prospects of getting past even $300M worldwide uncertain, particularly because it faces direct competition immediately from Pacific Rim: Uprising.
The surprise of the weekend was I CAN ONLY IMAGINE (Roadside), the biggest Christian hit in some time with a $17.1M opening that surpassed all expectations. (That number includes a very strong Sunday estimate, but since the film courts a churchgoing audience, that may be justified.) Using The Shack as a precedent ($16.2M opening/$57.4M US total), Imagine has a good chance of passing $60M, which would make it one of the Top 10 films for that niche, and would be hugely profitable for a production that may have as little in $25M in all-in costs, thanks to its focused marketing campaign.
The success of I Can Only Imagine overshadowed LOVE, SIMON (Temple Hill/20th), which did fairly well with $11.5M, but has a steeper hill to climb due to somewhat higher production costs and a much more expensive big-studio marketing spend that may put expenses at $75M or so all-in. Simon will hope that word of mouth can keep it in wide circulation for another month at least.
7 DAYS IN ENTEBBE (Focus/Universal) marked the 2nd time in as many weeks (after Thoroughbreds) that Focus has seemingly thrown up its hands and put a new release into the nether world of a 500-1000 theatre start. Entebbe was probably intended as a cross between a prestige historical drama and a thriller, but there was little star value to promote, and the reviews were brutal, leaving it with a $1.6M opening at 838 theatres, a sad $1900 per-theatre average for the weekend.
HOLDOVERS: BLACK PANTHER (Marvel/Disney) because the 1st movie since Avatar to top the US box office for 5 consecutive weeks, dipping a mere 34% to $27M. It’s at $605.4M here, and will hope to pass Titanic‘s $659.4M to become the #3 film of all time. Overseas, it’s at $577.1M, after a $30M weekend in all major territories, and it’s likely to be the rare action blockbuster to earn more domestically than internationally–although with a $1.3B worldwide total in sight, enough to put it in the Top 10 around the globe, Disney will be fine with that.
A WRINKLE IN TIME (Disney) fell steeply for a family fantasy adventure, down 50% to $16.6M (by comparison, The Jungle Book dropped 40% in its 2nd weekend), and now may struggle to reach $100M in the US. Disney’s international strategy is to move very slowly, and it’s at $10.6M overseas, where it will need to thrive to have any hope of avoiding red ink.
GAME NIGHT (New Line/Warners) continues to own the comedy market, down a slim 29% in its 4th weekend to $5.6M, and now on track to hit $65M in the US. That’s still not tremendous against $100M+ in worldwide costs, and its current $30.5M international total is unexciting, but it’s not out of the race.
PETER RABBIT (Sony Animation/Columbia/Sony) is also solid with its audience, down 23% in its 6th weekend to $5.2M, on track for $120M. Peter finally opened in its UK home market with a strong $9.5M, the lion’s share of a $15.5M weekend in 22 territories with much of the world still to come.
RED SPARROW (20th) fell 48% in its 3rd weekend to $4.5M, and probably won’t get to $50M in the US. Things aren’t much better overseas, where it’s at $66.6M after an $8.9M weekend in 72 markets.
DEATH WISH (MGM) dropped 49% to $3.4M in its 3rd weekend, unlikely to reach $40M in the US, with no international openings yet.
Last weekend’s openings didn’t look any better a week later. STRANGERS: PREY AT NIGHT (Aviron) had a standard 54% plunge for low-budget horror, down to $4.8M with a final destination under $30M. THE HURRICANE HEIST (Entertainment Studios) dropped an ugly 66% to $1M, and may not hit $8M. GRINGO (Amazon/STX) fell an even worse 77% to $600K, and probably won’t reach $6M. THOROUGHBREDS (Focus/Universal) lost 62% to $500K, and may not see $5M.
JUMANJI: WELCOME TO THE JUNGLE (Columbia/Sony) hit its final US milestone of $400M, down 40% in its 13th weekend to $1.7M. It also has $539.4M overseas.
LIMITED RELEASE: THE DEATH OF STALIN (IFC) expanded very well to 32 theatres with an $18K per-theatre weekend average. FLOWER (The Orchard) is claiming a solid $19K average at 3, but that number is hugely front-loaded (half the weekend total came from Friday alone), and it includes an extremely aggressive Sunday estimate. JOURNEY’S END (Good Deed) started with a soft $3200 average at 2. A FANTASTIC WOMAN (Sony Classics), now at 190 theatres, averaged $1100. THE LEISURE SEEKER (Sony Classics) averaged $3K at 49. FOXTROT (Sony Classics) averaged $4400 at 12.
NEXT WEEKEND: A plethora of titles, with the most likely challenger to Black Panther being PACIFIC RIM: UPRISING (Legendary/Universal). Also on tap: thriller UNSANE (Bleecker Street), family sequel SHERLOCK GNOMES (Paramount), YA romance MIDNIGHT SUN (Open Road), and the very Christian PAUL, APOSTLE OF CHRIST (Affirm/Sony). In addition, Wes Anderson’s ISLE OF DOGS (Fox Searchlight) begins in limited release.
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