OPENINGS: Both of the weekend’s R-rated arrivals had fair Saturday bumps, reflecting their older audiences. However, that’s also the demo for Oscar viewing, so we’ll see if their Sunday estimates are overly optimistic. For now, RED SPARROW (TSG/20th) is at $17M for the weekend after its 12% Saturday climb, a mediocre total for a film with around $175M in production/marketing costs. It’s playing similarly overseas, where it earned $26.6M in 65 territories, with Russia, France and Japan among those still to open.
DEATH WISH (MGM) was even stronger on Saturday, rising 23% from Friday, but that still only gave it a $13M weekend. Costs were relatively moderate at $90M including worldwide marketing, which still leaves a lot of ground to cover if Death Wish only gets to $35-40M in the US.
HOLDOVERS: Once again, BLACK PANTHER (Marvel/Disney) was dominant, down just 41% in its 3rd weekend to $65.7M, which brings its current US total to $501.1M with plenty of gas left in its tank. It’s the 3rd-highest 3rd weekend in US history, behind only The Force Awakens and Avatar, and its rate of descent is below The Avengers‘ 46% at this point in the run, putting it on track for $675M in the US, which would also be in 3rd place below Force and Avatar. International results, while huge, are running behind the US with $396.7M after a $56.2M weekend in 56 markets, and although next week’s China opening will undoubtedly give that number a boost, the worldwide total still seems like it will be tilted toward the US, which has only happened twice before with billion-dollar blockbusters, Rogue One and The Dark Knight.
GAME NIGHT (New Line/Warners) found some traction with a 37% drop to $10.7M, suggesting it may reach an OK $50-55M in the US. It’s at a quieter $16M overseas after a $8.4M weekend in 46 territories.
PETER RABBIT (Sony Animation/Columbia/Sony) owned the family market for one more weekend (A Wrinkle In Time will change that next week), down 22% to $10M, and on its way to $100M in the US. It’s still in limited release overseas, with a $14.3M weekend in 12 markets, of which $12.7M was from China.
ANNIHILATION (Paramount) had a 49% Weekend 2 drop to $5.7M, and won’t get much beyond $30M in the US. We don’t know the terms of Paramount’s deal with Netflix, which owns the rest of the world except China, but if Paramount is on the hook for half the production cost and all US marketing, this is going to leave red ink on its books.
The Christmas season veterans are still cooking, although nosing closer to the end of their runs. JUMANJI: WELCOME TO THE JUNGLE (Columbia/Sony) slipped just 20% to $4.5M in its 11th weekend, preparing to surpass $400M in the US before it’s done, and with $535.7M overseas after a $1.9M weekend in 79 territories. THE GREATEST SHOWMAN (Fox) was down 21% to $2.7M in the US, and should end up around $170M, with $211.2M overseas after a $5.3M weekend in 25.
FIFTY SHADES FREED (Perfect World/Universal) is moving downward much faster, with a 53% descent to $3.3M, which should allow it to get to $100M in the US. As has always been the case with the franchise, it’s far stronger overseas, with $250.6M after a $10.8M weekend in 61 markets and Japan opening next week.
EVERY DAY (Orion/MGM) fell 48% in its 2nd weekend to $1.6M, and probably won’t reach $10M. That’s better than the Christian-aimed SAMSON (Pure Flix), which crashed by 69% to $304K and won’t get past $5M.
Several Best Picture nominees expanded for Oscar weekend, but they’ve been around for a while (and most are now also available digitally and/or on DVD), so there wasn’t much left for them. Only the Fox Searchlight pair of THE SHAPE OF WATER ($1.4M) and 3 BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI ($1.2M) were over $1M for the weekend.
LIMITED RELEASE: FOXTROT (Sony Classics), which had hoped for a Foreign Film nomination it didn’t get, had a mild opening with a $9200 per-theatre average at 4. As for the films that did get a nomination, A FANTASTIC WOMAN (Sony Classics) averaged $1700 at 89, LOVELESS (Sony Classics) averaged $2400 at 25, and THE INSULT (Cohen) averaged $1200 at 47. In addition, THE PARTY (Roadside) expanded to 92 with a $1500 average, NOSTALGIA (Bleecker Street) unaccountably widened to 140 with a horrible $300 average, and THE YOUNG KARL MARX (The Orchard) averaged $1500 at 12.
NEXT WEEKEND: As noted, the big arrival is A WRINKLE IN TIME (Disney), and other openings include GRINGO (STX), THE HURRICANE HEIST (Entertainment Studios), and STRANGERS: PREY AT NIGHT (Aviron). Arthouses will see THE DEATH OF STALIN (IFC), THE LEISURE SEEKER (Sony Classics), and THOROUGHBREDS (Focus/Universal).
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