OPENINGS: OVERBOARD (MGM/Pantelion/Lionsgate) opened in 45% more theatres than Eugenio Derbez’s How To Be A Latin Lover, and had a weekend that was 20% higher at $14.8M. That’s not the cross-cultural breakout hit that the studio and Derbez had in mind, although an eventual $40M in the US will likely provide a modest profit on lower-end production and marketing costs, mostly because Derbez’s audience over-delivers in homevideo.
TULLY (Focus/Universal) had a quiet start at $3.2M, similar to the $3.4M opening (at 350 fewer theatres) for the 2011 Young Adult, which was also a Jason Reitman/Diablo Cody/Charlize Theron project, and ended up at $16.3M in the US. That’s not going to pull Reitman out of his current box office funk.
BAD SAMARITAN (Electric) is released by director Dean Devlin’s own studio, and with a $1.8M weekend at 2007 theatres, it reminds one of the line about a lawyer who represents himself having a fool for a client.
HOLDOVERS: None of the newcomers were in any way a challenge to AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR (Marvel/Disney). As predicted, Disney’s weekend estimate of $112.5M is so narrowly ahead of Black Panther‘s $111.7M Weekend 2 that we won’t really know if Infinity War has supplanted Panther as the #2 2nd weekend in US history until final numbers tomorrow. Even with a slight adjustment, though, Infinity War‘s 56% Weekend 2 drop will be more like Age of Ultron‘s 59% than the 50% for the original Avengers and the 45% for Black Panther. It suggests a $675M US total for Infinity War, which would be #4 all-time, and behind only Black Panther among Marvel installments. Things flip overseas, where Infinity War is already at $713.3M after a $162.6M weekend that still doesn’t include China. Barring an unexpected disappointment there, Infinity War should roar past the original Avengers‘s $895.5M to become the biggest Marvel movie ever internationally, and if it reaches $1.7B worldwide, it will trail only Avatar, Titanic and The Force Awakens. That would put Marvel’s 2018 total at $3B+, and with Ant-Man & the Wasp still on the horizon.
As was the case last weekend, it was a long way down after that. A QUIET PLACE (Paramount) dipped just 31% in its 5th weekend to $7.6M and seems bound for $175M in the US. It doesn’t have quite the same strength overseas, where it’s at $95.4M after a $4.1M weekend in 57 territories, although China, France and Japan have yet to open. On a percentage basis, it will be one of the most profitable movies of the year.
I FEEL PRETTY (Voltage/H Brothers/STX) dropped 40% in its 3rd weekend to $4.9M, and with Life of the Party heading straight for its target audience next weekend, it may not be able to reach $50M in the US, very similar to the $45.9M for Snatched. It hasn’t yet ventured overseas.
RAMPAGE (New Line/Warners) stabilized with a 36% drop to $4.6M, likely to run out of gas with $95M in the US. It’s far bigger overseas, with $293.1M after a $13.7M weekend in 63 markets, although more than half that total is from China, which means the revenues to Warners are lower than they look.
BLACK PANTHER (Marvel/Disney) continues to ride Infinity War‘s wave, down 34% in its 12th weekend to $3.1M, and seemingly bound for $700M in the US. It’s at $645.3M overseas.
LIMITED RELEASE: The documentary RBG (Magnolia) had a solid start with a $16.5K per-theatre average at 34, almost identical to the $16K average I Am Not Your Negro had for Magnolia at 43 last year, although it remains to be seen whether RBG will have the muscle to equal the earlier film’s $7.1M total. The Indian-language 102 NOT OUT (Sony) attracted its target audience with a $4700 average at 102. DISOBEDIENCE (IFC) expanded to 31 with a fair $10K average. THE RIDER (Sony Classics) averaged $3K after widening to 47. LEAN ON PETE (A24) was only able to muster a $650 average at 187. LET THE SUNSHINE IN (IFC) averaged $9500 at 7.
NEXT WEEKEND: The studios are peeking out of their Infinity War-induced hiding, but only with counterprogramming tailored to female audiences: Melissa McCarthy vehicle LIFE OF THE PARTY (New Line/Warners), and angry-mom thriller BREAKING IN (Universal). Limited releases include THE SEAGULL (Sony Classics) and BEAST (Roadside).
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