May 6, 2018

Behind the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 5.6.2018


OPENINGS:  OVERBOARD (MGM/Pantelion/Lionsgate) opened in 45% more theatres than Eugenio Derbez’s How To Be A Latin Lover, and had a weekend that was 20% higher at $14.8M.  That’s not the cross-cultural breakout hit that the studio and Derbez had in mind, although an eventual $40M in the US will likely provide a modest profit on lower-end production and marketing costs, mostly because Derbez’s audience over-delivers in homevideo.

TULLY (Focus/Universal) had a quiet start at $3.2M, similar to the $3.4M opening (at 350 fewer theatres) for the 2011 Young Adult, which was also a Jason Reitman/Diablo Cody/Charlize Theron project, and ended up at $16.3M in the US.  That’s not going to pull Reitman out of his current box office funk.

BAD SAMARITAN (Electric) is released by director Dean Devlin’s own studio, and with a $1.8M weekend at 2007 theatres, it reminds one of the line about a lawyer who represents himself having a fool for a client.

HOLDOVERS:  None of the newcomers were in any way a challenge to AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR (Marvel/Disney).  As predicted, Disney’s weekend estimate of $112.5M is so narrowly ahead of Black Panther‘s $111.7M Weekend 2 that we won’t really know if Infinity War has supplanted Panther as the #2 2nd weekend in US history until final numbers tomorrow.  Even with a slight adjustment, though, Infinity War‘s 56% Weekend 2 drop will be more like Age of Ultron‘s 59% than the 50% for the original Avengers and the 45% for Black Panther.  It suggests a $675M US total for Infinity War, which would be #4 all-time, and behind only Black Panther among Marvel installments.  Things flip overseas, where Infinity War is already at $713.3M after a $162.6M weekend that still doesn’t include China.  Barring an unexpected disappointment there, Infinity War should roar past the original Avengers‘s $895.5M to become the biggest Marvel movie ever internationally, and if it reaches $1.7B worldwide, it will trail only Avatar, Titanic and The Force Awakens.  That would put Marvel’s 2018 total at $3B+, and with Ant-Man & the Wasp still on the horizon.

As was the case last weekend, it was a long way down after that.  A QUIET PLACE (Paramount) dipped just 31% in its 5th weekend to $7.6M and seems bound for $175M in the US.  It doesn’t have quite the same strength overseas, where it’s at $95.4M after a $4.1M weekend in 57 territories, although China, France and Japan have yet to open.  On a percentage basis, it will be one of the most profitable movies of the year.

I FEEL PRETTY (Voltage/H Brothers/STX) dropped 40% in its 3rd weekend to $4.9M, and with Life of the Party heading straight for its target audience next weekend, it may not be able to reach $50M in the US, very similar to the $45.9M for Snatched.  It hasn’t yet ventured overseas.

RAMPAGE (New Line/Warners) stabilized with a 36% drop to $4.6M, likely to run out of gas with $95M in the US.  It’s far bigger overseas, with $293.1M after a $13.7M weekend in 63 markets, although more than half that total is from China, which means the revenues to Warners are lower than they look.

BLACK PANTHER (Marvel/Disney) continues to ride Infinity War‘s wave, down 34% in its 12th weekend to $3.1M, and seemingly bound for $700M in the US.  It’s at $645.3M overseas.

LIMITED RELEASE:  The documentary RBG (Magnolia) had a solid start with a $16.5K per-theatre average at 34, almost identical to the $16K average I Am Not Your Negro had for Magnolia at 43 last year, although it remains to be seen whether RBG will have the muscle to equal the earlier film’s $7.1M total.  The Indian-language 102 NOT OUT (Sony) attracted its target audience with a $4700 average at 102.  DISOBEDIENCE (IFC) expanded to 31 with a fair $10K average.  THE RIDER (Sony Classics) averaged $3K after widening to 47.  LEAN ON PETE (A24) was only able to muster a $650 average at 187.  LET THE SUNSHINE IN (IFC) averaged $9500 at 7.

NEXT WEEKEND:  The studios are peeking out of their Infinity War-induced hiding, but only with counterprogramming tailored to female audiences:  Melissa McCarthy vehicle LIFE OF THE PARTY (New Line/Warners), and angry-mom thriller BREAKING IN (Universal).  Limited releases include THE SEAGULL (Sony Classics) and BEAST (Roadside).




About the Author

Mitch Salem
MITCH SALEM has worked on the business side of the entertainment industry for 20 years, as a senior business affairs executive and attorney for such companies as NBC, ABC, USA, Syfy, Bravo, and BermanBraun Productions, and before that, at the NY law firm of Weil, Gotshal & Manges. During all that, he has more or less constantly been going to the movies and watching TV, and writing about both since the 1980s. His film reviews also currently appear on and In addition, he is co-writer of an episode of the television series "Felicity."