OPENINGS: JURASSIC WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM (Legendary/Perfect World/Universal) is claiming a round-number $150M US opening (actually $150.001M, which is cute), a number that relies on an extremely strong Sunday projection. If it goes down by a million or two tomorrow in finals, it won’t be a meaningful change except for PR purposes, and the result will still be down around 28% from 2015’s Jurassic World, a perfectly reasonable decline for a sequel. What remains to be seen is whether Kingdom will have the same 3.1x multiple that World did, or a more typical 2.7x, which would be the difference between a US total of $405M or $465M. In either case, the only issue for the franchise is to keep the numbers steady going forward, because another 30% drop for the next installment in 2021 would be more worrisome. Things are similar overseas, where Kingdom is now in all major territories except Japan (the #3 international market for World), and has $561.5M after a $106.7M weekend, suggesting it will be down 20-30% from World.
HOLDOVERS: INCREDIBLES 2 (Pixar/Disney) dropped 56% in its 2nd weekend to $80.9M, a somewhat sharper hit than the 46% Weekend 2 drop for Finding Dory. Incredibles 2 will be the #1 animated film in US history (Dory ended up at $486.3M), but the rate of its decline will determine whether it can hit the $600M milestone. Overseas, it’s continuing a gradual rollout, now in 28 territories (including China) and with a $134.7M total after a $56.8M weekend. (Incidentally, the footnote to the tale of how Disney used Incredibles 2 to push A Wrinkle In Time to $100M in the US is that Wrinkle had a spectacular 96% plunge this weekend.)
OCEAN’S EIGHT (Village Roadshow/Warners) dipped 39% in its 3rd weekend to $11.7M, still on track for $120-125M in the US, which would put it between Twelve and Thirteen (not adjusting for inflation). It had a $29.6M weekend in 60 overseas markets, for a total to date of $70.6M. It appears that the international total for Eight is likely to equal the US number, while Thirteen earned 65% more overseas than in the US, the resulting shortfall similar to the one Black Panther hit outside the US, as some markets continue to prefer more traditional casts.
TAG (New Line/Warners) dropped 45% in its 2nd weekend to $8.2M, a steeper drop than the 39% for Weekend 2 of Game Night, and on track for $45M in the US. Overseas revenues are currently at $1.5M.
DEADPOOL 2 (20th) shed 40% in its 6th weekend to $5.3M, and should end up at $315M in the US. Overseas, it’s at $403M after a $5.3M weekend. Compared to the first Deadpool, the US total should be down around 15%, while international will hold steady.
SOLO (Lucasfilm/Disney) is limping to the finish line, down 60% in its 5th weekend to $4M, on its way to $210M in the US. It’s at an even more anemic $151.3M overseas, and probably won’t see $400M worldwide.
HEREDITARY (A24) fell 44% in its 3rd weekend to $3.8M, and should get past $40M before it’s done. It also has $13.2M overseas.
SUPERFLY (Screen Gems/Sony) fell 51% in its 2nd weekend to $3.4M, and may stretch beyond $20M in the US, with no international distribution yet.
As the summer blockbusters pile in, AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR (Marvel/Disney) lost about 1/3 of its theatres and dropped 54% in its 9th weekend to $2.5M, en route to $675M in the US. Overseas, it’s at a giant $1.36B.
LIMITED RELEASE: WON’T YOU BE MY NEIGHBOR (Focus/Universal) expanded to 348 theatres with a $5400 weekend per-theatre average, considerably better than the $3300 average RBG had at 375, and it’s well on its way to joining RBG at a $10M+ US total. AMERICAN ANIMALS (Orchard/MoviePass) widened to 339 with a less impressive $1700 average. HEARTS BEAT LOUD (Gunpowder & Sky), now at 104, averaged $3100. THE CATCHER WAS A SPY (IFC) opened at 49 with a $2500 average. BOUNDARIES (Sony Classics) debuted at 5 with a subpar $6100 average. THE KING (Oscilloscope) opened at 2 and averaged $15.5K. EATING ANIMALS (IFC) expanded to 6 with a $3800 average. DAMSEL (Magnolia) averaged $7K at 3.
NEXT WEEKEND: The studios take a weekend off from blockbusters, with major openings SICARIO: DAY OF THE SOLDADO (Black Label/Columbia/Sony) and UNCLE DREW (Summit/Lionsgate). Limited releases include LEAVE NO TRACE (Bleecker Street).
About the Author
