OPENINGS: INDEPENDENCE DAY: RESURGENCE (20th) is the latest indication that audiences may be tiring of massive CG spectacles–which is bad news for the major studios, since they’ve concentrated most of their line-ups into that genre. ID:R‘s $41.6M weekend is mediocre at best for a would-be blockbuster with $300M+ in worldwide costs, suggesting a US total that won’t pass $125M (and may end up considerably lower). Nor will international receipts bail it out: its 57-territory start already puts it in most of the world’s major territories, and at that scale, a $102M opening (a mild $37.3M of it from China) is unpromising. Instead of re-establishing a franchise, ID:R will have to struggle just to avoid red ink.
Despite the flowers being thrown in its path by pundits desperate for some good news, THE SHALLOWS (Columbia/Sony) and its $16.7M opening are nothing to sing about. It’s a solid start for a relatively low-budget studio product ($17M production budget), and it should make some profit if it can reach $50M in the US, but there’s still a signifiant marketing investment to recoup, and any profits could be wiped out by the opening weekend of Sony’s upcoming Ghostbusters reboot.
Hark, is that the sound of a studio swearing to anyone who’ll listen that it’s limited its downside on a flop? This week the subject is FREE STATE OF JONES (H Brothers/STX), a laudably ambitious but not inexpensive (at least $100M in worldwide costs) attempt to bring some seriousness to the summer movie season that went splat with a $7.8M opening. With little international appeal, the Civil War drama has scant chance of breaking even.
Jones, though, is Captain America: Civil War compared to THE NEON DEMON (Amazon/Broad Green), a bizarre piece of work whose featured necrophilia scene is all too neatly a metaphor for its box office. Inexplicably released at a semi-wide 783 theatres, it had a dreadful $775 per-theatre average for the weekend, giving it a $600K total–and even that assumes an extremely strong Sunday hold, which doesn’t seem all that likely.
Meanwhile, THE SECRET LIFE OF PETS (Illumination/Universal) dipped its toe into overseas release before its July 8 US opening and found the water fine, with $15.2M in just the UK and Norway. In the UK, its total nearly doubled the start for Independence Day: Resurgence, a nice place to start.
HOLDOVERS: FINDING DORY (Pixar/Disney) thrived without meaningful competition, down just 46% to $73.2M in its 2d weekend. That’s not quite as good as the 42% 2d weekend drop for Inside Out or the 44% for Monsters University (let alone the crazy 32% for Zootopia), but it’s much better than the 57% dip for Minions, and equals the hold for Toy Story 3, which isn’t bad company. It’s currently at $286.6M in the US, and although there’s some significant competition ahead (Disney’s own The BFG next week, and Pets the week after that), it should easily get past $400M. Overseas, Dory is in a gradual release that’s so far hit just 37 markets, and has $110.3M after a $37M weekend.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE (New Line/RatPac/Universal/Warners) held well, down 48% to $18.4M and benefiting from being the only comedy in the market. It’s at $69.3M, and should have the muscle to pass $100M in the US. Things aren’t as strong overseas so far, although there are still plenty of territories to open, with $14.1M after a $4.7M weekend in 28 markets.
THE CONJURING 2 (New Line/RatPac/Warners) is dropping faster than the first Conjuring, down 48% in its 3d weekend compared to 41% for the original. The weekend brought in $7.7M for a $86.9M US total, and although it should pass $100M, it won’t get close to the $137.4M that Conjuring earned. Overseas, it’s at $156M after a $21M weekend, and should beat the first Conjuring‘s $180.6M.
NOW YOU SEE ME 2 (Summit/Lionsgate) had the best hold in the Top 10, down just 40% to $5.7M, but it’s still at only $52.1M, and won’t end up with much over half of the first Now‘s $117.7M. The news is better overseas, where the decision to set much of the story in China paid off to the tune of a $43.3M opening weekend (better than Independence Day: Resurgence), with a total overseas weekend of $50.9M in 55 territories. Its overseas total is now $107.7M, although that’s still a long way from the first Now‘s $234M international haul, and the China market tends to burn out very quickly (and provide studios with a lower level of revenue).
X-MEN: APOCALYPSE (TSG/20th) and TEENAGE MUTANT NINJA TURTLES: OUT OF THE SHADOWS (Nickelodeon/Movie Media Group/Alibaba/Paramount) are nearing the end of their underperforming runs. X-Men fell 53% to $2.5M in the US and may not get to $160M (30% below Days of Future Past), and overseas it’s at $374.6M after a $3.6M weekend, and even with Japan still to come, it may not reach $400M (which would be more than 20% lower). Turtles dropped 54% to $2.4M in the US for a $77.1M total, more than $100M below the 2014 reboot, and overseas it’s at $76.8M after a $3.6M weekend. A China opening next week will help, but the final number won’t begin to approach the $302.1M overseas total of the 2014 installment.
Any dreams that WARCRAFT (Legendary/Universal) would ride China to profit are gone. In the US, the flop is at $43.9M, and overseas, despite the huge $221M from China, the total is still a wan $368.3M, which when the lower Chinese studio revenues are factored in, won’t get the project to breakeven.
LIMITED RELEASE: SWISS ARMY MAN (A24) had a strong start at 3 NY/LA arthouses with a $38K per-theatre average, although that was boosted by an aggressive program of weekend Q&As. The same was true for HUNT FOR THE WILDERPEOPLE (Orchard), which averaged $17K at 5. WIENER-DOG (IFC) averaged a more subdued $13.5K at 2. Despite excellent reviews, LES COWBOYS (Cohen) only averaged $3600 at 4.
NEXT WEEKEND: The holiday is greeted by Steven Spielberg’s family fantasy THE BFT (Disney), the expensive adventure THE LEGEND OF TARZAN (Warners), and the much smaller-scale THE PURGE: ELECTION DAY (Blumhouse/Universal). Limited releases are led by OUR KIND OF TRAITOR (Roadside).
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