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July 3, 2016
 

Behind the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 7/3/16

 

OPENINGS:  The older, less frontloaded audience for THE LEGEND OF TARZAN (Village Roadshow/RatPac/Warners) allowed it to slip ahead of the holiday weekend’s new arrivals, down just 10% from Friday for a 3-day $38.1M weekend that should become $46M by Monday.  Unfortunately for the mega-budgeted adventure, that still means around a $125M US total, which will barely dent the $300M+ in worldwide production/marketing costs.  Tarzan is pursuing a gradual release pattern overseas, but the early results aren’t remarkable:  $18.8M in 19 territories.

THE PURGE: ELECTION YEAR (Blumhouse/Universal) fell 36% on Saturday, worse than the 27% Day 2 drop for The Purge: Anarchy (although slightly better than the 37% loss for the original Purge, which didn’t have a holiday Sunday propping it up).  Election Year‘s $30.9M 3-day total is about $1M ahead of Anarchy, and it will add to that lead on Monday, but next weekend will probably drop heavily (the franchise has fallen 76% and 65% on its 2d weekends), and it may not reach $75M in the US.  Still, with a $10M production budget and restrained marketing costs, the Purge series will continue to be profitable.

No such luck for THE BFG (Reliance/Walden/Disney), which is proving to be neither big, friendly nor giant (discuss among yourselves).  With a 12% Saturday drop, it’s only at $19.6M after 3 days, and perhaps $25M with Monday.  A $75M US total is probably the best it can hope for, a tiny contribution to its $275M+ in production/marketing costs.  BFG has barely started its overseas release, with $3.9M in 2 markets, but at this point it’s more a question of how much money it will lose rather than whether it can break even.

SWISS ARMY MAN (A24) took a leap into semi-wide release at 636 theatres and managed $1.4M for the 3-day weekend, an unimpressive $2300 per-theatre average.

THE SECRET LIFE OF PETS (Illumination/Universal) is still days away from its US opening, but it’s at $29.6M after 2 weeks of international release, with $11.9M this weekend.

Similarly, ICE AGE: COLLISION COURSE (Blue Sky/20th) won’t arrive in the US until mid-July, but it’s already started its overseas run, with $20M in 7 territories.

HOLDOVERS:  FINDING DORY (Pixar/Disney) had little trouble with the weekend’s tepid openings, taking the 3-day weekend with $41.9M, down 43% from last weekend, and far ahead of the $29.8M Inside Out earned over last year’s July 4th weekend.  That number should go to $50M with Monday, which should put its US total at $380M, 50% ahead of where Inside Out was at the end of the holiday weekend.  Next week’s animated competition may diminish it, but it should still easily reach $450M in the US.  Overseas, it’s now in 40 markets (including China), and has $166M after a $34.4M weekend.

INDEPENDENCE DAY: RESURGENCE (20th) is the latest action spectacle to discover that overseas box office alone won’t pay the bills.  In the US, it fell 60% to $16.5M for the 3-day weekend, and it won’t get much beyond $100M.  Its $300M+ in worldwide costs will be largely unrecouped, and internationally it’s at a pale $177M after a $40.2M weekend.  There are still a few major openings to come (France, Germany, Japan, Italy), but little chance of any profit.

CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE (New Line/RatPac/Universal/Warners) is the only comedy around, and it had the best hold in the Top 10, down just 32% to $12.3M as of Sunday.  It’s at $91.8M, and has a shot at reaching $125M.  Overseas, it’s now in 43 markets, and has a $30.3M total after a $13.8M weekend.  It could be en route to $200M worldwide.

Considering its disposable genre, THE SHALLOWS (Columbia/Sony) held nicely, down 46% to $9M for $35.3M as of Sunday.  It should reach the $50-60M level in the US which would get it to profit if there’s any international appeal.

FREE STATE OF JONES (Huangyi/STX) may have been hurt by Tarzan as an older-skewing historical action adventure, and it dropped a considerable 45% for the genre, down to $4.1M for the weekend and a $16.2M total.  With $100M+ in total costs and little likelihood of overseas appeal, it’s a dead loss.

THE CONJURING 2 (New Line/RatPac/Warners) dropped 50% for the 3-day weekend to $3.9M and $95.3M in the US so far, and might get to $110M, down about 20% from the first Conjuring.  Overseas, though, it’s already almost equal to its predecessor with $178.8M compared to $180.6M, and will certainly surpass it, since it took in $13.1M this weekend in 60 markets.

NOW YOU SEE ME 2 (Summit/Lionsgate) fell 47% to $3M in the US, for a $58.7M total that won’t get much higher than $65M, down more than 40% from the first Now You See Me.  Internationally, Now 2 is at $155.6M after a $20.8M weekend in 60 territories, and although there are still some major markets ahead, including the UK, it’s unlikely to match the first movie’s $234M, even with its heavy use of China locations.

THE NEON DEMON (Broad Green) was heaved out of most of its theatres after a single week, and plunged 78% to a horrible $135K at the 185 theatres that were left.  Its US total won’t get to $2M.

LIMITED RELEASE:  OUR KIND OF TRAITOR (Lionsgate/Roadside) had an unassuming $1M start in 373 theatres, giving it a $2700 per-theatre average.  HUNT FOR THE WILDERPEOPLE (Orchard) expanded to 23 with a $6200 average.  The well-reviewed THE INNOCENTS (Music Box) averaged $10.5K at 3.  WIENER-DOG (IFC) widened to 36 theatres with a $2200 average.

NEXT WEEKEND:  The Secret Life of Pets finally reaches US shores.  Central Intelligence will get comedy competition from MIKE & DAVE NEED WEDDING DATES (20th).  On the limited front, CAPTAIN FANTASTIC (Bleecker Street) makes its debut.

 



About the Author

Mitch Salem
MITCH SALEM has worked on the business side of the entertainment industry for 20 years, as a senior business affairs executive and attorney for such companies as NBC, ABC, USA, Syfy, Bravo, and BermanBraun Productions, and before that, at the NY law firm of Weil, Gotshal & Manges. During all that, he has more or less constantly been going to the movies and watching TV, and writing about both since the 1980s. His film reviews also currently appear on screened.com and the-burg.com. In addition, he is co-writer of an episode of the television series "Felicity."