April 29, 2018

Beyond the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 4.29.2018


OPENINGS:  AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR (Marvel/Disney) got the historic opening of its dreams, edging out The Force Awakens with a $250M US weekend, and also becoming the #1 worldwide opening in history with $630M.  That latter number is remarkable not only because it beat The Fate of the Furious by $88.1M, but even more because it had one figurative arm tied behind its back, not having opened yet in Russia (next week) or China (2 weeks from now).  (Fate does still have the top overseas opening for this reason, with $443.2M compared to Infinity War‘s 2nd place $380M.)  The question, of course, is how front-loaded Infinity War will turn out to be.  Its 22% Saturday dip in the US was much better than Age of Ultron‘s 33%, but not as good as The Avengers, Black Panther, Captain America: Civil War or Iron Man 3 (10-19%).  Civil War was closest at 19%, and if we assume the same multiple for Infinity War, its US total would be around $570M, while the Ultron multiple would bring it to $600M.  (Black Panther‘s incredible multiple would push it to $800M+, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.)  Black Panther aside, the Marvel mega-busters have tended to double their US box office overseas, which means Infinity War could become the biggest worldwide hit in its franchise history with $1.7-1.8B.  Of course, even if it “underdelivers,” it’s still going to be a gigantic success.  And Disney is just getting started for the summer, with Solo, The Incredibles 2, and Marvel’s Ant-Man & The Wasp all arriving by July.  (Oddly, the studio is facing a subdued Christmas season, with Wreck It Ralph 2 and Mary Poppins Returns more likely to be sizable hits than blockbusters.)

HOLDOVERS:  The Avengers tide did not push up all boats, although a few older titles did fairly well (and one performed spectacularly).  A QUIET PLACE (Paramount) dropped a very reasonable 49% to $10.7M, and assuming some bounce-back next weekend, it could still be on track for $175M in the US.  Overseas, it’s at a much, well, quieter $87.2M after a $6.6M weekend in 57 markets, although China, France and Japan are still to open.

I FEEL PRETTY (Voltage/H Brothers/STX) counterprogrammed adequately with a 49% drop to $8.1M, en route to the same $45M+ as Snatched.  It hasn’t yet opened overseas.

RAMPAGE (New Line/Warners) was poleaxed by Avengers, down 65% to $7.1M in the US, where it might get to $95M.  It’s much bigger overseas, but past its peak with a $16.1M weekend and a $256.7M total, with openings to come in France, Germany and Japan.  A $400M worldwide total would be mildly profitable, but perhaps not enough to keep the saga going as a franchise.

BLACK PANTHER (Marvel/Disney) basked in the glow of Infinity War, down a fantastically low 11% in its 11th weekend to $4.4M, and seemingly destined for $700M in the US if it can hold onto its theatres for a few more weeks.  It’s at $643.3M overseas.

SUPER TROOPERS 2 (Fox Searchlight) was destined for a big Weekend 2 drop even without Infinity War, and it crashed by 76% to $3.6M, and will hope to reach $30M in the US, a number that may be good enough considering its extremely low production/marketing costs.

TRUTH OR DARE (Blumhouse/Universal) fell 59% to $3.2M, and should pass $40M in the US, with $12.5M to date overseas.

BLOCKERS (Good Universe/Universal) wasn’t able to serve as counterprogramming, down 57% to $2.9M as it heads for an OK $60M in the US.  It also has $22.1M overseas.

READY PLAYER ONE (Village Roadshow/Reliance/Warners) is out of steam, down 67% to $2.4M and on its way to $135M in the US.  It’s far more robust internationally with $414.5M after an $8.6M weekend, but as we’ve noted before, more than half that total ($213.8M) is from China, which puts its profitability into question.

TRAFFIK (Code Black/Lionsgate) fell 59% in its 2nd weekend to $1.6M, and may reach $10M in the US.

LIMITED RELEASE:  DISOBEDIENCE (Bleecker Street) saw an opening as other indies decided to side-step Infinity War, and had an excellent $48K per-theatre average at 5 NY/LA arthouses, particularly notable because neither of its stars participated in weekend Q&As at the theatres, and because the film got a terrible review from the NY Times.  Another Toronto Film Festival title, KINGS (The Orchard) was far less successful with an $800 average at 214, and even that number may not hold, since its studio customarily estimates very strong Sundays.  LEAN ON PETE (A24) expanded to 167 with a dim $1400 average.  THE RIDER (Sony Classics) widened to 37 with an OK $5100 average.  GHOST STORIES (IFC, also on VOD) averaged $2300 at 12.

NEXT WEEKEND:  Infinity War will remain mighty, so the competition is low-budget.  The class of the group is TULLY (Focus/Universal), with thriller BAD SAMARITAN (Electric) and the rom-com remake OVERBOARD (Pantelion/Lionsgate) arriving as well.  Limited releases include the documentary RBG (Magnolia).

About the Author

Mitch Salem
MITCH SALEM has worked on the business side of the entertainment industry for 20 years, as a senior business affairs executive and attorney for such companies as NBC, ABC, USA, Syfy, Bravo, and BermanBraun Productions, and before that, at the NY law firm of Weil, Gotshal & Manges. During all that, he has more or less constantly been going to the movies and watching TV, and writing about both since the 1980s. His film reviews also currently appear on and In addition, he is co-writer of an episode of the television series "Felicity."