The early Friday numbers this week are likely to be even less reliable than usual, since weather conditions on the East Coast make estimates very dicey.  That being said, the preliminary numbers at Deadline make it clear that come blizzard or high water, IDENTITY THIEF (Universal) will be the big winner of the weekend.  […]

  Everything has broken right for JOKER (BRON/Village Roadshow/DC/Warners).  Its combination of gold-standard IP with a gritty, violent, R-rated aesthetic has been largely accepted critically and earned it film festival kudos, and it’s had the benefit of controversy about its potential to stir up real-life trouble without (so far) any actual incidents that could drive […]

>No new wide releases this weekend, the final weekend of the year as we welcome the arrival of 2012.  We are estimating a box office volume of $145 million for Friday-Sunday for the top 12 films, up 27% from $114 million last weekend (which was limited by Christmas Eve on Saturday) and down only 2% […]

> This weekend is looking unusually strong for late September: the top 12 films should gross over $100 million, about 14% above a normal weekend this time of year.  The strong 3D reissue of The Lion King should remain at #1 with close to $20 million and a very family-friendly, small second weekend decline.  Challenging […]

  OPENINGS:  With $36M on Friday, X-MEN: DAYS OF FUTURE PAST is assured of going over $100M by Monday, and the only question is by how much.  The day fell a bit below the openings for Godzilla ($38.4M) and Captain America: The Winter Soldier ($36.9M), but above The Amazing Spider-Man 2 ($35.2M).  (On their 2d […]

  HOTEL TRANSYLVANIA 3: SUMMER VACATION (Sony Animation/Columbia/Sony) continues to be a solid mid-level franchise.  Preliminary numbers at Deadline have the opening day box office at $16.3M, the best of the trio, although it’s a bit misleading to compare that with the $11M Friday for the first Transylvania and the $13.3M for the second, since […]

  OPENINGS:  THE WOMAN KING (TriStar/Sony) launched at the higher end of expectations with $19M, boosted by strong reviews (94% on Rotten Tomatoes) and enthusiastic audience response as measured by exit polls.  In the current market, with few openings arriving each week (and even fewer for Woman King‘s older female target demo), the film should […]

  It’s looking like a slow weekend at the box office, although the successive arrivals of Divergent, Noah and Captain America 2 over the next 3 weeks should keep it from becoming a trend. Based on preliminary numbers at Deadline, NEED FOR SPEED (DreamWorks/Disney) probably won’t even reach $20M for the weekend.  Its reported $6.5M […]