WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS November 18-20

• Tweet
• Email

• Tweet
• Email

>This weekend is all about Twilight Breaking Dawn, which will be huge.  But Happy Feet Two should manage an opening that would look stellar on any other recent weekend.  Overall box office this weekend should be up 33% from the same weekend last year.        

Also opening, at about 2,800 theaters, Happy Feet Two from Warner Brothers should average a very good $10,400 per theater (for $39.5 million this weekend).  The animated family sequel is only 33% positive at RottenTomatoes .  Happy Feet Two is probably headed for around $135 million domestically.     

                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
November 18-20                   Positive   Weekend   Total*

Twilight Breaking Dawn 1Sum  PG    11%      $148.5    $310
Happy Feet Two          Rel  R     33%      $39.5     $135

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

Weekend declines should be in the normal 45-55% range.   

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
November 18-20                  vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*

Immortals              Rel        -57%      $14.0     $ 91
Puss in Boots       DW/Par        -50%      $12.5     $177
Jack and Jill         Sony        -53%      $12.0     $ 75

Tower Heist            Uni        -48%      $ 6.5     $ 76
J. Edgar                WB        -44%      $ 6.5     $ 33
A Very Harold & Kumar   WB        -49%      $ 3.0     $ 39

In Time                Fox        -51%      $ 2.0     $ 40
Footloose              Par        -45%      $ 1.5     $ 56

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $186 million total, ranking 1st of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend’s total was $186 million, and the same weekend in 2009 was $250 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like $249 million, up 33% from this weekend last year and up 34% from the four-year average for this weekend.       

This Weekend Last Two Years

Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform.  Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up as a whole (based on Friday’s early numbers), on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals), and Monday we will have the final weekend numbers.