Weekend #41 of 2016 forecasts for films opening wide and major returning films: NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND October 7-9, 2016 Critics Positive ($ millions) Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection Overseas Total Projection Worldwide Total Projection The Girl on the Train Uni R 54% 29.0 85 110 195 The Birth of a Nation Fox R 83% […]

  OPENINGS:  The studio-reported $28.5M weekend for Tim Burton’s MISS PEREGRINE’S HOME FOR PECULIAR CHILDREN (TSG/20th) is below the $29.7M opening for Burton’s flop Dark Shadows.  Miss Peregrine cost less than Shadows, which will help (reportedly by about $40M), but this is still not much more than a breakeven proposition on a fairly large investment […]

WORLDWIDE STUDIO SCORECARD.  Updated look at 2016 by studio. YEAR TO DATE BOX OFFICE. Looking at North American box office, 2016 to date is now +3% above last year and still +5% above the average for this point the past four years ($7.527 billion).  Over the same period, Hollywood films have grossed just over $20.0 billion worldwide when […]

  Both of the weekend’s major openings cost too much for the amount they’re currently earning.  MISS PEREGRINE’S HOME FOR PECULIAR CHILDREN (TSG/20th) has production/marketing costs of $225M+, and preliminary numbers at Deadline have its opening day at roughly $9M (including $1.2M from Thursday night).  That suggests a $25-27M weekend, which would be an even […]

Weekend #40 of 2016 forecasts for films opening wide and major returning films: NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND September 30-October 2, 2016 Critics Positive ($ millions) Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection Overseas Total Projection Worldwide Total Projection Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children Fox PG13 63% 28.5 80 140 220 Deepwater Horizon LG PG13 84% 19.5 […]

  OPENINGS:  It was important for THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN (Village Roadshow/MGM/Columbia/Sony) to hit the $35M that the studio is currently claiming, because that puts it slightly over the two obvious comparisons:  the $34.1M for the last Denzel Washington/Antoine Fuqua collaboration The Equalizer, and the $34.5M just a few weeks ago for Sully, a film similarly […]

WORLDWIDE STUDIO SCORECARD.  Updated look at 2016 by studio.   YEAR TO DATE BOX OFFICE. Looking at North American box office, 2016 to date is still +4% above last year and still +5% above the average for this point the past four years ($7.371 billion).  Over the same period, Hollywood films have grossed almost $19.7 billion worldwide when we […]

  THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN (Village Roadshow/MGM/Columbia/Sony), an expensive action movie in a month that doesn’t often feature them, and toplining the potent combo of Denzel Washington and Chris Pratt, is starting off moderately well but not exceptionally.  Preliminary numbers at Deadline have its opening day at $13M (including $1.75M from Thursday night), slightly ahead of […]