This weekend’s numbers will need some examination, with plenty of spin available in all directions.  Preliminary estimates at Deadline have BOO!  A MADEA HALLOWEEN (Lionsgate) a hair ahead of JACK REACHER: NEVER GO BACK (Skydance/Huahua/Shanghai Film Group/Paramount) on Friday, $9.2M vs. $9.1M.  There are several reasons why this is a bigger win than it […]

  OPENINGS:  The biggest arrival of the weekend is still 2 weeks away from reaching the US.  INFERNO (Columbia/Sony), the latest in the DaVinci Code/Angels & Demons franchise, opened in 53 markets comprising about 2/3 of the world with $50M.  That’s a solid start, but suggests that when the movie goes worldwide (except for France) […]

  It’s a deja vu weekend, as THE ACCOUNTANT (RatPac/Warners) had a $9M opening day (including $1.35M from Thursday night), according to preliminary numbers at Deadline, almost identical to last Friday’s $9.3M for The Girl On The Train (including $1.23M from Thursday night), another adult-aimed thriller with a production budget in the $40M range and […]

  OPENINGS:  THE GIRL ON THE TRAIN (DreamWorks/Reliance/Universal) didn’t have much of a Saturday bump, rising just 2% (that compares to 15% for the 2d day of Gone Girl), suggesting that word of mouth is less than stellar.  The result was a $24.7M weekend that was lower than originally anticipated, and early international results of […]

  From the start, THE GIRL ON THE TRAIN (DreamWorks/Reliance/Universal) was perceived as a lower-intensity version of the Gone Girl phenomenon, and that’s holding with the opening of its film version.  Where Gone Girl had a $13.2M Friday start on its way to a $37.5M weekend, preliminary numbers at Deadline give Train $9.3M on Friday, […]

Weekend #41 of 2016 forecasts for films opening wide and major returning films: NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND October 7-9, 2016 Critics Positive ($ millions) Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection Overseas Total Projection Worldwide Total Projection The Girl on the Train Uni R 54% 29.0 85 110 195 The Birth of a Nation Fox R 83% […]

  OPENINGS:  The studio-reported $28.5M weekend for Tim Burton’s MISS PEREGRINE’S HOME FOR PECULIAR CHILDREN (TSG/20th) is below the $29.7M opening for Burton’s flop Dark Shadows.  Miss Peregrine cost less than Shadows, which will help (reportedly by about $40M), but this is still not much more than a breakeven proposition on a fairly large investment […]

  Both of the weekend’s major openings cost too much for the amount they’re currently earning.  MISS PEREGRINE’S HOME FOR PECULIAR CHILDREN (TSG/20th) has production/marketing costs of $225M+, and preliminary numbers at Deadline have its opening day at roughly $9M (including $1.2M from Thursday night).  That suggests a $25-27M weekend, which would be an even […]