ANNABELLE: CREATION (New Line/Warners) will easily take the weekend. According to preliminary numbers at Deadline, opening day was $15.1M, slightly below the $15.5M for 2014’s original Annabelle, but Creation is much more frontloaded, with $4M from Thursday night, almost double the $2.1M for Annabelle. That suggests a lower weekend multiple than Annabelle‘s 2.4, and perhaps $35M for the weekend. With about $85M in worldwide production and marketing costs, that puts Creation in place to be quite profitable (Annabelle earned $84.3M in the US and $172.6M overseas), and winds up a generally strong summer for Warners, which endured the bumps of King Arthur and The House, but prospered with Wonder Woman, Dunkirk and now this.
The weekend’s other openings are far less happy. THE NUT JOB 2: NUTTY BY NATURE (Open Road) opened with $2.8M, down 41% from 2014’s Nut Job (which was in almost 600 fewer theatres), pointing toward a weekend in the neighborhood of $10M, and a US total around $35M. The first Nut Job made less overseas than it did in the US, so Nutty may not top $75M worldwide, which will almost certainly end the marginal franchise.
A serious summer movie like THE GLASS CASTLE (Lionsgate) needs stellar reviews to have any chance of surviving, and 50% on Rotten Tomatoes won’t do it. Castle had a $1.6M opening day, and may not reach $5M for the weekend.
Last weekend’s openings held badly. THE DARK TOWER (MRC/Columbia/Sony) fell 71% to $2.3M on Friday, for a $7-8M weekend. It’s not likely to get past $50M in the US, and even with its relatively restrained costs, it will need quite a bit of international help just to break even.
KIDNAP (Aviron) dropped 61% from last Friday to $1.5M, for a $5M weekend. Still, its costs were low enough that it could reap a small profit if it can get to $30M in the US.
Any hopes that the strong reviews and word of mouth would sustain a lengthy run for DETROIT (A24) were dashed, as the film sank by 68% from last Friday to around $800K. It’s facing a $3M weekend, and may not even get to $20M in the US. A24 will face the difficult decision of whether to invest more money in a probably doomed Oscar campaign several months from now.
Holdovers were led once again by DUNKIRK (Warners), down 40% Friday-to-Friday to $3M for a $10-11M weekend. It’s on target to reach $175M+ in the US, with a chance of catching Interstellar‘s $188M.
GIRLS TRIP (Perfect World/Universal) dipped 44% from last Friday to $2M for a $6-7M weekend. It should pass $100M next week, with enough gas to end up around $110M in the US.
SPIDER-MAN: HOMECOMING (Marvel/Columbia/Sony) was down just 31% from last Friday to $1.8M. It’s now past the $300M milestone in the US, although a total of $320M will still leave it behind the Sam Raimi trilogy of the early 2000s.
THE EMOJI MOVIE (Columbia/Sony) dropped more than 50% on its 3rd Friday to $1.9M, on the road to a $6-7M weekend and $75M in the US.
ATOMIC BLONDE (Sierra/Focus/Universal) lost 50% from last Friday to $1.2M for a $4M weekend and $50M in the US, not a promising start for a would-be franchise.
AN INCONVENIENT SEQUEL: TRUTH TO POWER (Paramount Vantage) had a disastrous expansion to 556 theatres, averaging perhaps $1300 per theatre for the weekend. WIND RIVER (Weinstein) was much more solid as it spread to 45 theatres, with a $12K weekend average ahead.
INGRID GOES WEST (Neon) had a strong Friday, but that included a Cinerama Dome Q&A, so we’ll see if the weekend reaches its current trajectory of a $40K average at 3 NY/LA theatres. GOOD TIME (A24) may average $30K for the weekend at 4.
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