CARS 3 (Pixar/Disney) will have a strong Fathers Day, which in turn will make its weekend multiple look good, but it’s off to a disappointing start. In preliminary numbers at Deadline, its opening day is pegged at $19.1M (including $2.8M from Thursday night), down 25% from the first day of 2011’s Cars 2 ($25.7M), and even down a bit from the original Cars ($19.7M), which doesn’t account for 11 years of inflation or for the fact that in 2006, “Friday” box office still meant Friday alone. Thanks to the Sunday holiday, Cars 3 may reach $57M for the weekend, but that number could go down if Saturday falters. In any case, it will be the lowest opening in the Cars franchise, compared to $60.1M for Cars and $66.1M for the sequel. Cars is unusual, though, in that its biggest profits come not from overseas release but from merchandising, where it generates giant toy sales, so in a sense the movie is just a super-elaborate commercial for the toys.
The surprise of the weekend is ALL EYEZ ON ME (Morgan Creek/Lionsgate), which despite largely negative reviews generated $13M on opening day (including $3.1M from Thursday night), and could get to $33M+ by Sunday. Straight Outta Compton had a 2.5x multiple for its opening weekend without the benefit of Fathers Day, so Eyez could reach $35M for the weekend, a strong start for a film with a moderate $40M production budget and limited marketing costs. The limitation is that it will likely have to make the vast bulk of its money in the US–even Compton only earned 20% of its worldwide total from overseas.
All Eyez On Me beat WONDER WOMAN (RatPac/Wanda/Ten Cent/Warners) on Friday, but the superheroine adventure is still very solid, down 33% from last Friday to $10.6M, and likely to have a $37M weekend. It’s now firmly in line to become the highest-grossing US release in the current DC movie universe, despite starting with the lowest opening weekend, with $350M within the realm of possibility.
No one expected THE MUMMY (Perfect World/Universal) to hold well, and it didn’t, plunging 68% from last Friday to $3.8M. Fathers Day will improve its weekend lot as well, but it still may only hit $14M, and it’s unlikely to get beyond $80M in the US. We’ll see how the international numbers hold up on Sunday, but its ability to hit profit seems like a toss-up at this point.
The very low-cost 47 METERS DOWN (Entertainment Studios) is giving a lift to its newcomer studio with $4.2M on opening day. It could reach $11M for the weekend, and with some international success it could be a tidy piece of business.
The bomb of the weekend is ROUGH NIGHT (Columbia/Sony), with $3.4M on Friday and a weekend that may not get to $9M. With worldwide production/marketing costs that will be in the $100M neighborhood, it’s another blow both to Sony (which is counting the days until Spider-Man: Homecoming opens) and to Scarlett Johansson, with her second consecutive failure after Ghost In the Shell.
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MEN TELL NO TALES (Disney) had a surprisingly good hold from last week, down just 30% from last Friday to $2.1M, with a possible $8M weekend ahead. Nevertheless, it’s still headed for $170M in the US.
CAPTAIN UNDERPANTS: THE FIRST EPIC MOVIE (DreamWorks Animation/20th) held up quite well in the face of Cars 3, down 40% from last Friday to $2.1M and a $8M weekend, but it’s still on track for a dim $80M in the US.
MEGAN LEAVEY (Bleecker Street) was a film that could reasonably have hoped for some good word of mouth, but it dropped 46% from last Friday to under $700K, and is probably facing a weekend under $3M and a US total under $15M.
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