This weekend was expected to belong to LOGAN (TSG/20th), and the R-rated, critically acclaimed superhero drama is delivering in a big way. Preliminary numbers at Deadline have opening day at $32M (including $8.5M from Thursday night), about 2/3 of Deadpool‘s first day, which was itself boosted by a 4-day holiday weekend. Among R-rated action movies, that number is also better than the first wide days of American Sniper ($30.3M over another 4-day weekend) and 300 ($28.1M). Word of mouth should be strong, and it could add up to a $80M+ weekend, the #4 March opening and #1 among March R-rated films. Costs were a very reasonable $225M+ for the superhero genre, and since Logan takes place in 2029, theoretically allowing for 12 more years of stories even though Logan provides Wolverine’s finale, one imagines that Fox will be testing Hugh Jackman’s commitment to hanging up his claws.
The success of Logan shouldn’t obscure something in a way even more remarkable: GET OUT (QC/Blumhouse/Universal) is having an unbelievable 2d weekend for a horror movie, down just 27% from last Friday to $7.9M. Leaving aside titles that added hundreds of theatres in their 2d weekend, Get Out is having a kind of hold that hasn’t been seen in horror since The Sixth Sense in 1999 (down 5% Friday-to-Friday), and like Sixth Sense, Get Out is clearly being refreshed by audiences that normally avoid the genre. The weekend could hit $28M, putting the tiny-budgeted picture on track for a $125M US total, which will give it one of the year’s best ROIs.
THE SHACK (Lionsgate) is successfully counterprogramming all the R-rated action at multiplexes, hitting its goal of mainstream Christian audiences with a $5.7M opening day, which isn’t quite at the $7.9M Heaven Is For Real level but is higher than the $4.2M for Miracles From Heaven (both Heaven and Miracles opened on Wednesdays). Assuming a strong Sunday crowd, The Shack could have a $16M weekend and hit $60M+ in the US for a tidy profit.
Things were comparatively bleak for BEFORE I FALL (Open Road), with just $1.5M on Friday and a weekend that might not reach $4M. It’s an inexpensive production and had a limited marketing spend but is still unlikely to get out of red ink.
Was anyone even aware that TABLE 19 (Fox Searchlight) opened in 868 theatres? Its studio basically snuck it into town (presumably to minimize costs on a sure loser), and the result was a $500K Friday and a weekend that won’t be much above $1M.
Behind Get Out, holdovers were paced by the 4th weekend of THE LEGO BATMAN MOVIE (Warners Animation), down 38% from last Friday to $2.6M, on track for $160M in the US, but so far not as strong overseas. JOHN WICK: CHAPTER TWO (Summit/Lionsgate) fell 46% from last Friday to $1.3M, and should top $90M in the US before it’s done. THE GREAT WALL (Legendary/Universal) had a steep 62% Friday-to-Friday drop to about $900K and will struggle to reach $50M in the US. FIFTY SHADES DARKER (Universal) kept falling, down 58% from last Friday to $1.1M, and heading for $115M in the US, down 30% from Fifty Shades of Grey.
Despite its Best Picture Oscar (and the sensational circumstances of its win) and an expansion to 1564 theatres (almost tripling last weekend), MOONLIGHT (A24) remained an arthouse taste with $650K on Friday and perhaps a $2M weekend. It will go into the books as one of the lowest-grossing Best Pictures ever with a US total around $30M. HIDDEN FIGURES (20th) didn’t win anything on Sunday night, but it continued to win the hearts of audiences, down 31% from last Friday to $1.1M, and due to pass $165M in the US. LA LA LAND (Summit/Lionsgate), however bitter the taste in its producers’ mouths, was also solid, down 33% to $800K and on its way to $150M in the US.
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