GODS OF EGYPT (Summit/Lionsgate) has been sitting around for so long that Gerard Butler managed to make next week’s London Has Fallen in the interim, and its own studio has been bleating about how the downside had been limited through tax rebates and foreign pre-sales, so the ensuing thudding flop isn’t much of a surprise. Even with the mitigating factors, Lionsgate is probably on the hook for at least $50M of the $250M+ production/global marketing cost (and maybe more if Gods doesn’t meet the guaranteed minimums on those pre-sales), and with a Friday estimated at Deadline at under $5M, it could be facing a $12M weekend and a US total that won’t get beyond $30M. This genre clearly isn’t Lionsgate’s sweet spot, considering that its last foray was 2014 The Legend of Hercules, which opened at $8.9M for a $18.8M US total, and it’s likely to mark the (temporary, anyway) end of the 300-inspired spate of CG spectacles.
Gods is the biggest flop of the weekend, but not its only casualty. Both TRIPLE 9 (Open Road) and EDDIE THE EAGLE (MARV/20th) are starting with $2M Fridays and will struggle to pass $5-6M for the weekend. These had modest $20M-ish production budgets and relatively small marketing spends, but will still swim in red ink, unless they have substantial foreign success.
All that wreckage made a 3rd consecutive weekend victory easy for DEADPOOL (20th), down 46% from last Friday to $8.8M, with a $31M weekend ahead that will put it at around $285M by Sunday. Deadpool should hit $350M in the US, which would be neck-and-neck with American Sniper as the #2 R-rated release ever. (The Passion of the Christ is #1 at $370.8M.)
KUNG FU PANDA 3 (DreamWorks Animation/20th) remains the only family game in town, down just 30% from last Friday to $2M. It should have a $9M weekend, and is still gunning for $150M in the US.
Last weekend’s openings are holding indifferently. RISEN (Affirm/Columbia/Sony) fell 50% from last Friday to $2M for a likely $7M weekend, not holding up particularly well for the Christian genre (War Room slipped 43% on its 2d Friday, and God’s Not Dead, which added theatres, was down just 16%). RACE (Focus/Universal) was more stable but at a lower level, down 46% from opening day to $1.3M for a $4.5M weekend. As horror movies go, THE WITCH (A24) held pretty well, down 54% to $1.5M on Friday for a $5M weekend, with a $20-25M US total ahead.
HOW TO BE SINGLE (RatPac/MGM/New Line/Warners) dropped 54% to $1.6M, and is still heading for a $50M US total after a $5M weekend.
All the major Oscar nominees are having bumps this weekend (Spotlight, in particular, increased its theatre count by 75% to capitalize on the hype), but the only one that will top $1M for the weekend is THE REVENANT (Regency/20th), which earned $1M on Friday and should hit $4M for the weekend, giving it a $170M US total.
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