Hollywood generally has little interest in opening films against the Super Bowl, and to the extent it participates, it tries to counterprogram the game by aiming at the young female demographic. Thus we have a PG-13 horror movie and a YA fantasy-romance this weekend, but neither is finding much of an audience.
RINGS (Paramount) is a reboot of a remake that no one was particularly asking for, and it’s not inexpensive for its genre, with $75M+ in production/marketing costs. Preliminary numbers at Deadline have it at $5.2M on Friday, and with the expected drop on Sunday, that sets its weekend at around $12M, not enough to put it on a path to profit.
THE SPACE BETWEEN US (H Brothers/STX) has had a bumpy road to multiplexes, moving from the near-defunct Relativity to its current studio and also from its originally scheduled 2016 release date. STX, for its part, spent this week telling absolutely everyone that its exposure on the $30M production cost was minimal (although it’s still on the hook for the national marketing campaign), never a promising sign. The results were even more disastrous than expected, with an awful $1.5M on Friday and perhaps $3.5M for the weekend that guarantees plenty of red ink for all involved.
Whether because of contractual obligation or terrible decisionmaking, THE COMEDIAN (Sony Classics) opened at a quasi-wide 848 theatres and there were seats available in all sections. The film, which had hoped to no avail for some Oscar attention for Robert DeNiro, earned a tiny $300K on Friday and may not get to $800K for the weekend.
All of this left the weekend wide open for SPLIT (Blumhouse/Universal) to win its 3rd weekend in a row. With $4.8M on Friday (down just 36% from last week), it should have at least $14M for the weekend, putting its US total inches away from $100M. It could end up as M. Night Shyamalan’s biggest hit since 2002’s Signs.
A DOG’S PURPOSE (Amblin/Universal) had a mediocre Week 2 hold for its family genre, down 46% from last Friday to $2.8M, and heading for a $10M weekend and a US total that might get to $50M–which would be fine, considering its moderate production costs, if it didn’t need to recoup an expensive marketing campaign.
GOLD (Weinstein) was pure lead, dropping 60% on Friday to under $500K, and not likely to reach $10M in the US after a $1.5M weekend.
RESIDENT EVIL: THE FINAL CHAPTER (Screen Gems/Sony) plunged as expected, down 73% Friday-to-Friday to $1.3M, on its way to a $4M weekend and perhaps a US $30M total.
XXX: THE RETURN OF XANDER CAGE (Shanghai/Huahua/Paramount) will need every penny overseas that it can earn, falling 50% from last Friday to $1.1M, and with a $3M weekend and $40M US total ahead.
The Oscar titles were led by HIDDEN FIGURES (20th), still holding like a champ. It slipped just 20% from last Friday to $3M, and will earn at least $9M for the weekend, putting its US total near $120M.
LA LA LAND (Summit/Lionsgate) is on the verge of being passed by Hidden Figures. It dropped 31% from last Friday to $2.3M, and will also be just below $120M by Sunday after a $7M weekend.
LION (Weinstein) is arguably the Oscar nominee to benefit most from its inclusion among the Best Picture nominees. It almost doubled its run to 1405 theatres, and earned $1.1M on Friday for a $3.5M weekend that puts it on its way to a $30M+ US total.
The only major limited release of the weekend is I AM NOT YOUR NEGRO (Magnolia), which despite its own Oscar nomination and ecstatic reviews is heading toward a merely OK $10K weekend per-theatre average at 45.
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