TOMORROWLAND (Disney) appears to be heading for the low end of expectations, earning around $10M on Friday (including less than $1M from Thursday night shows) according to preliminary numbers at Deadline. Although exit polls are far from infallible, family movies usually score well, and its B grade is a sign that word-of-mouth may be unenthusiastic, suggesting a 3-day weekend of roughly $35M, and perhaps $43M with Monday included. Tomorrowland is an expensive spectacle, with a reported production budget of $180M that inflates to $325M+ with worldwide marketing included. It’s also particularly “American” in an increasingly global film economy, which may keep it from the kind of international multiples other sci-fi adventures enjoy. In short, its future is off to a shaky start.
That may make for a closer finish at the weekend box office than expected, as PITCH PERFECT 2 (Gold Circle/Universal) dropped 64% from last Friday to $10M, also putting it in line for a $35M/43M weekend, with a $130M US total by Monday. Whichever title ends up the narrow winner for the weekend, Pitch 2‘s $29M production budget will make it far more profitable than Tomorrowland can realistically hope to be.
POLTERGEIST (MGM/20th) was in 3rd place on Friday with $9-10M (including $1.4M from Thursday night shows), but like most horror movies it’s not expected to hold well through the weekend (exit polls were at a horror-normal C+), giving it around $25M by Sunday and $30M by Monday. Poltergeist wasn’t expensive by summer tentpole standards, but its $35M production cost was far from the Blumhouse bargain basement level, so once worldwide marketing is included in the calculation, it’s not looking at much more than breaking even.
By Monday, MAD MAX: FURY ROAD (Village Roadshow/Warners) should pull ahead of Poltergeist in the weekend tally. It fell 55% from its opening day to $7.5M, and could reach $25M by Sunday and $32M a day later, putting it close to $100M at the end of the holiday, although with San Andreas standing squarely in its path next weekend.
AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON (Marvel/Disney) is starting to tail off, down close to 50% from last Friday to $5.2M, but still on the way to a $20M/$25M weekend that will put it over $400M in the US.
HOT PURSUIT (MGM/Warners) headed for the exits, down 50% from last Friday to $900K and heading for a $3M/4M weekend and a $35M US total.
FAR FROM THE MADDING CROWD (Fox Searchlight) expanded indifferently to a semi-wide release at 865 theatres, with a $600K Friday (less than doubling its total despite tripling its theatre count), and with a $2.5M/3M weekend ahead. By comparison, when last year’s Grand Budapest Hotel reached 977 theatres, it earned $8.5M in its parallel 3-day weekend, and that didn’t include the boost of a holiday.
About the Author
