It may have hurt Sony’s pride to turn SPIDER-MAN: HOMECOMING (Marvel/Columbia/Sony) over to Marvel to produce, but it proved to be a smart business move, with preliminary numbers at Deadline that put opening day at about $48M ($15.4M from Thursday night), 35% higher than the first day of 2014’s Amazing Spider-Man 2. With word of mouth fueled by strong exit poll numbers and reviews, as well as a young-skewing spin on the franchise, the weekend should be in the neighborhood of $120M, and possibly more. As the final superhero epic of the summer, it should also hold well for the next several weeks. While franchises normally are slower to start overseas than they are in the US (Wonder Woman is currently at a 50/50 split), Spider-Man is only new-ish, with Amazing Spider-Man 2 earning 71% of its worldwide total internationally, so we’ll see how Homecoming plays outside the US. In any case, though, this is a big win both for Sony and Marvel. (It’s also worth noting that with all the media handwringing about the plague of superhero movies, it appears now that the top 3 movies of the summer will be the season’s entries in that genre, with Homecoming joining Guardians of the Galaxy 2 and Wonder Woman.)
DESPICABLE ME 3 (Illumination/Universal) fell 60% on its 2d Friday to $11.6M, better than the 68% drop for Minions. (Despicable Me 2 had a 56% Friday-to-Friday drop, but that had opened on the preceding Wednesday.) It should have a $37M weekend, on track for $225M in the US, which would make it the lowest in the franchise domestically (the original Despicable was $251.5M), although still a profitable enterprise.
BABY DRIVER (MRC/TriStar/Sony) dipped 35% from last Friday (its 3rd day of release) to $3.9M, and should have a solid $12M weekend, on its way to $80M+ in the US. Those aren’t Spider-Man numbers, but Baby Driver represents a much lower investment.
The arrival of a new superhero in town barely dented WONDER WOMAN (RatPac/Wanda/Tencent/Warners), down just 29% from last Friday to $3.1M. It should have a $10M weekend, which will put it at $369M, and appears to have a serious chance of catching Guardians 2‘s $384.7M to become summer’s #1 movie.
CARS 3 (Pixar/Disney) dropped 35% Friday-to-Friday to $1.9M, for a $6M weekend. It may reach $150M in the US, which would make it the second-lowest Pixar grosser ever, only ahead of The Good Dinosaur‘s $123.1M (but a merchandising bonanza).
TRANSFORMERS: THE LAST KNIGHT (Huahua/Paramount) is almost done in the US, down 65% from last Friday to $1.7M, for a $5M weekend and a US total that will barely get past $125M.
THE HOUSE (Village Roadshow/Good Universe/New Line/Warners) fell 55% from last Friday to $1.5M for a $4-5M weekend, and probably won’t reach $30M in the US.
THE BIG SICK (Amazon/Lionsgate) expanded well to 326 theatres, and should have a weekend per-theatre average around $10K. That’s about the same average Blue Jasmine had at 229 theatres and (500) Days of Summer had at 266, and they reached $32-33M in the US.
THE BEGUILED (Focus/Universal), though, is fading fast, with another expansion to 941 theatres that will yield a $2500 weekend average.
The only major limited release of the weekend is A GHOST STORY (A24), which should have a respectable $22K weekend per-theatre average at 4 NY/LA arthouses.
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