Just about everything in theatres this weekend is due to take a 60-70% dive on Super Bowl Sunday, which probably means that even if THAT AWKWARD MOMENT (Focus/Universal) maintains the slim current lead for Friday that it has in preliminary numbers at Deadline, it’s unlikely to stay ahead for the weekend. At the moment, it has something like a $4.25M opening day, barely ahead of the $3.9M for the third Friday of RIDE ALONG (Universal), which is down only about 40% from last Friday. By Sunday, Awkward may not be much above $10M, while Ride Along, which should have a much stronger Saturday, could have a $12M weekend, and will now certainly reach $100M+ before it’s done. However, with a very low production cost and limited marketing, Awkward might still manage to break even.
Ride Along‘s biggest competition may come from a true veteran, the 10th wide weekend of FROZEN (Disney), which is being goosed by a “sing-along” remarketing campaign. Amazingly, after being in theatres since November, its $2.2M Friday would be up 10% from last week if that number holds, and the animated musical could top $10M for the weekend. It now seems very likely to beat Despicable Me 2 as the top animated movie released in the US in 2013, something no one expected.
THE NUT JOB (Open Road) and LONE SURVIVOR (Universal) should both have $2M Fridays, good holds for each, and $7-8M weekends.
Jason Reitman’s LABOR DAY (Paramount), as widely expected, is bombing with a $2M Friday and a weekend that might not reach $6M. Again, it was produced on a budget and marketed sparingly, but in this case that’s probably not enough to avoid red ink.
Another Paramount disappointment is JACK RYAN: SHADOW RECRUIT, heading for $1.75M on Friday and a $6M weekend. It may not even reach $50M in the US.
I, FRANKENSTEIN (Lionsgate) had the expected 60% plunge from last week to $1.1M on Friday as it packs its bags for VOD.
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