April 21, 2012


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Written by: Mitch Salem


The 16th weekend of 2012 is looking like $122 million for the Top 12 films, up 1% from this weekend last year but up 24% from the four-year average for the same weekend.  The Hunger Games has finally been toppled by Think Like a Man and The Lucky One.  However, down only 34% in its fifth weekend, The Hunger Games is now on track for a $387 million domestic final (adjusted up slightly from last week).  Updated weekend numbers for all films follow.       

Think Like a Man from Sony opened with $12.20 million Friday and is headed for a $32.5 million opening weekend, far exceeding the $22 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast.  The comedy written by Steve Harvey (and based on his book) should average a phenomenal $16,100 per theater in a relatively low 2,015 theaters.  Think Like a Man is headed for a preliminary $105 million in North America.      

The Lucky One from Warner Brothers opened with $9.13 million Friday and is headed for an estimated $24.0 million opening weekend, also above the $19.0 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast.  The Zac Efron romance drama should average $7,600 this weekend at 3,155 theaters.  The Lucky One is headed for a preliminary $65 million total domestic. 

Chimpanzee from Disney opened with $3.54 million Friday and could hit $10.5 million from Friday-Sunday, above the $6.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast.  The film should average $6,700 per the theater this weekend at 1,563 theaters.  Chimpanzee is headed for around $30 million total domestic, putting it just behind the first and most successful Disneynature film Earth ($32.0 million domestic in 2009) but ahead of Oceans ($19.4 million in 2010) and African Cats ($15.4 million in 2011).

Don’t cry for The Hunger Games.  Although it is now in third place this weekend, it’s estimated $14.0 million weekend is down only 34% from last weekend and is 14 times what an average film grosses in the fifth weekend.  The Hunger Games will move past $356 million on Sunday, and we have adjusted the estimated final domestic number up again to $387 million.    

In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions

April 20-22, 2012       Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early    FRI    Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final

Think Like a Man (Sony)  [$22.0]    $32.5   $12.2     $105
The Lucky One (WB)       [$19.0]    $24.0   $ 9.1     $ 65
The Hunger Games (LG)    [$13.0]    $14.0   $ 4.0     $387
Chimpanzee (Dis)         [$ 6.5]    $10.5   $ 3.5     $ 30
Three Stooges (Fox)      [$10.0]    $ 8.2   $ 2.3     $ 46–
Cabin in the Woods (LG)  [$ 7.8]    $ 7.7   $ 2.5     $ 46
Titanic 3D (Par)         [$ 7.5]    $ 5.2   $ 1.3     $ 72-
American Reunion (Uni)   [$ 5.8]    $ 5.3   $ 1.7     $ 60
21 Jump Street (Sony)    [$ 4.3]    $ 4.5   $ 1.4     $141
Mirror Mirror (Rel)      [$ 4.1]    $ 4.0   $ 1.1     $ 65 

Wrath of the Titans (WB) [$ —]    $ 3.8   $ 1.0     $ 85

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final     column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.  

Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $122 million total Friday-Sunday, up 1% from the same calendar weekend last year (which was helped by the strong second weekend of Rio) but up 24% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.  


Top 12 Films: Weekend #16

     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $122  Think Like a Man $32.5, Lucky One $24, Chimp $10.5

2011  $121  TP’s Madea’s Big Happy Family $25, Water for
             Elephants $17, African Cats $6
2010  $ 90  Back-Up Plan $12, The Losers $9, Oceans $6
2009  $104  Obsessed $28, Fighting $11, Earth $9

2008  $ 80  Big Mama $17, Harold & Kumar Escape $15
Avg   $ 99

Check back tomorrow for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.


About the Author

Mitch Salem
MITCH SALEM has worked on the business side of the entertainment industry for 20 years, as a senior business affairs executive and attorney for such companies as NBC, ABC, USA, Syfy, Bravo, and BermanBraun Productions, and before that, at the NY law firm of Weil, Gotshal & Manges. During all that, he has more or less constantly been going to the movies and watching TV, and writing about both since the 1980s. His film reviews also currently appear on and In addition, he is co-writer of an episode of the television series "Felicity."