The 32nd weekend of 2012 is looking like a halfway decent $138 million for the Top 12 films Friday-Sunday — despite being down a moderate 4% from the same weekend last year, this weekend is actually up 8% from this comparable weekend over several years.
The Bourne Legacy from Universal grossed $14.0 million Friday, on a pace for a $41.0 million opening weekend, a touch above the $37.5 million ShowbuzzDaily Forecast posted Wednesday. The total domestic projection for Bourne Legacy is $119 million, still a very conservation number. If the critics are wrong (only 51% are positive about Legacy, compared to 81-94% positive for the first three Bourne films) and if Jeremy Renner is actually a bona fide star that can open and carry a film, there is much more upside in the North American number.
| The Bourne Laboratory Results — Universal(star, director) | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Critics Positive | Opening Weekend | Domestic Total | Overseas Total | Worldwide Total | |||
| Bourne Legacy (Renner, Gilroy) | 8.10.2012 | 51% | 41-est | 119-est | n/a | n/a | |
| Bourne Ultimatum (Damon, Greengrass) | 8.3.2007 | 94% | 69.3 | 227.5 | 215.3 | 442.8 | |
| Bourne Supremacy (Damon, Greengrass) | 7.23.2004 | 81% | 52.5 | 176.2 | 112.3 | 288.5 | |
| Bourne Identity (Damon, Limon) | 6.14.2002 | 83% | 27.1 | 121.7 | 92.3 | 214.0 | |
The Campaign from Warner Brothers opened with $10.1 million Friday, on track for a $26.8 million weekend — slightly above the $25.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast. Campaign is on track for a domestic final of about $92 million, a reasonable playability rate given that critical reviews settled down to a more reasonable 66% positive.
Hope Springs from Sony opened with $4.6 million Friday in addition to $2.2 million on Wednesday and again Thursday. The comedy-drama should hit $14.0 million Friday-Sunday, exactly hitting our ShowbuzzDaily forecast issues Wednesday, while the five-day Wednesday-Sunday opening will stand at about $18.5 million. The Meryl Streep-Tommy Lee Jones-Steve Carell effort should head toward $64 million domestic. Hope Springs (77% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes now) should have solid word of mouth and longer-term playability — but not at an exceptional level.
The returning films are performing pretty much as forecast. The Dark Knight Rises continues on its pace for $445 million domestic, while Totall Recall has been downgraded a bit and Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days upgraded (both to around $55 million domestic). In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.
| Weekend 32: August 10-12, 2012 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Bourne Legacy | Uni | [37.5] | 41.0 | 14.0 | 119 | |
| The Campaign | WB | [25.5] | 26.8 | 10.1 | 92 | |
| Dark Knight Rises | WB | [19.8] | 19.8 | 5.6 | 446 | |
| Hope Springs | Sony | [14.0] | 14.0 | 4.6 | 64 | |
| Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days | Fox | [7.9] | 9.1 | 2.9 | 55 | |
| Total Recall | Sony | [11.3] | 8.1 | 2.4 | 56 | |
| Ice Age: Continental Drift | Fox | [5.5] | 6.8 | 2.0 | 163 | |
| Ted | Uni | [3.8] | 3.3 | 0.98 | 226 | |
| Step Up Revolution | Sum | [3.1] | 2.8 | 0.92 | 37 | |
| Amazing Spider-Man | Sony | [—] | 2.2 | 0.63 | 267 | |
| The Watch | Fox | [3.2] | 2.0 | 0.65 | 36 | |
| Brave | Pix Dis | [—] | 1.8 | 0.51 | 232 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $138 million total Friday-Sunday, down 4% from the same calendar weekend last year but up a decent 8% from the average for this weekend the past four years.
| ($ millions) | |||
| WEEKEND #32 | Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend | |
| 2012 | $138 | Bourne Legacy $41, The Campaign $27, Hope Springs $14 | |
| 2011 | $143 | The Help $26, Final Destination 5 $18, 30 Minutes or Less $13 | |
| 2010 | $132 | The Expendables $35, Eat Pray Love $23, Scott Pilgrim vs World $11 | |
| 2009 | $125 | District 9 $37, Time Traveler’s Wife $19 | |
| 2008 | $112 | Tropic Thunder $26, Star Wars Clone Wars $15, Mirrors $11 | |
| Avg 2008-11 | $128 | ||
Check back tomorrow morning for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses, as well as updated international figures later in the day Sunday. On Monday, we will update the ShowbuzzDaily Summer Movie Fantasy Draft, as well.
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