August 11, 2012


The 32nd weekend of 2012 is looking like a halfway decent $138 million for the Top 12 films Friday-Sunday — despite being down a moderate 4% from the same weekend last year, this weekend is actually up 8% from this comparable weekend over several years.            

The Bourne Legacy from Universal grossed $14.0 million Friday, on a pace for a $41.0 million opening weekend, a touch above the $37.5 million ShowbuzzDaily Forecast posted Wednesday.  The total domestic projection for Bourne Legacy is $119 million, still a very conservation number.  If the critics are wrong (only 51% are positive about Legacy, compared to 81-94% positive for the first three Bourne films) and if Jeremy Renner is actually a bona fide star that can open and carry a film, there is much more upside in the North American number.

The Bourne Laboratory Results — Universal(star, director) ($ millions)
Critics Positive Opening Weekend  Domestic Total  Overseas Total Worldwide Total
Bourne Legacy (Renner, Gilroy) 8.10.2012 51% 41-est 119-est  n/a n/a
Bourne Ultimatum (Damon, Greengrass) 8.3.2007 94% 69.3 227.5 215.3 442.8
Bourne Supremacy (Damon, Greengrass) 7.23.2004 81% 52.5 176.2 112.3 288.5
Bourne Identity (Damon, Limon) 6.14.2002 83% 27.1 121.7 92.3 214.0

The Campaign from Warner Brothers opened with $10.1 million Friday, on track for a $26.8 million weekend — slightly above the $25.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast.  Campaign is on track for a domestic final of about $92 million, a reasonable playability rate given that critical reviews settled down to a more reasonable 66% positive.

Hope Springs from Sony opened with $4.6 million Friday in addition to $2.2 million on Wednesday and again Thursday.  The comedy-drama should hit $14.0 million Friday-Sunday, exactly hitting our ShowbuzzDaily forecast issues Wednesday, while the five-day Wednesday-Sunday opening will stand at about $18.5 million.  The Meryl Streep-Tommy Lee Jones-Steve Carell effort should head toward $64 million domestic.  Hope Springs (77% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes now) should have solid word of mouth and longer-term playability — but not at an exceptional level.

The returning films are performing pretty much as forecast.  The Dark Knight Rises continues on its pace for $445 million domestic, while Totall Recall has been downgraded a bit and Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days upgraded (both to around $55 million domestic).  In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.

Weekend 32: August 10-12, 2012 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Bourne Legacy Uni [37.5] 41.0 14.0 119
The Campaign WB [25.5] 26.8 10.1 92
Dark Knight Rises WB [19.8] 19.8 5.6 446
Hope Springs Sony [14.0] 14.0 4.6 64
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days Fox [7.9] 9.1 2.9 55
Total Recall Sony [11.3] 8.1 2.4 56
Ice Age: Continental Drift Fox [5.5] 6.8 2.0 163
Ted Uni [3.8] 3.3 0.98 226
Step Up Revolution Sum [3.1] 2.8 0.92 37
Amazing Spider-Man Sony [—] 2.2 0.63 267
The Watch Fox [3.2] 2.0 0.65 36
Brave Pix Dis [—] 1.8 0.51 232

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $138 million total Friday-Sunday, down 4% from the same calendar weekend last year but up a decent 8% from the average for this weekend the past four years.

($ millions)
WEEKEND #32 Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend
2012 $138 Bourne Legacy $41, The Campaign $27, Hope Springs $14
2011 $143 The Help $26, Final Destination 5 $18, 30 Minutes or Less $13
2010 $132 The Expendables $35, Eat Pray Love $23, Scott Pilgrim vs World $11
2009 $125 District 9 $37, Time Traveler’s Wife $19
2008 $112 Tropic Thunder $26, Star Wars Clone Wars $15, Mirrors $11
Avg 2008-11 $128

Check back tomorrow morning for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses, as well as updated international figures later in the day Sunday.  On Monday, we will update the ShowbuzzDaily Summer Movie Fantasy Draft, as well.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.