August 4, 2012


More articles by »
Written by: Mitch Metcalf
Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

The 31st weekend of 2012 is looking like a soft $115 million for the Top 12 films Friday-Sunday, down 27% from the same weekend last year.  Dark Knight Rises stays at #1 as two new films fail to impress.            

Total Recall from Sony grossed $9.1 million Friday, on a pace for a $26.1 million opening weekend, almost exactly the $25.5 million ShowbuzzDaily Forecast posted Wednesday.  The remake of the 1990 film starring Arnold Schwarzenegger should average $7,200 per theater at 3,601 theaters, and even that business will dry up very quickly.  The total domestic projection for Total Recall is $67 million.

As the table below illustrates, 1990’s Total Recall opened with a seemingly similar $25.5 million and went on to gross $119 million domestically (back when movies played much longer in theaters).  But even more sobering is that in today’s dollars, the 1990 Total Recall opening is equal to over $48 million today, and the domestic total equates to $226 million today.

Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days from 20th Century Fox opened with $5.8 million Friday, on track for a $16.9 million weekend — somewhat below the $20.0 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast and several notches below the openings for the prior two Wimpy Kid films (both of which opened in March the last two years).  Dog Days is on track for a domestic final of about $45 million, also behind the pace of the first two films in the series.

This Weekend’s Openers and Their Predecessors ($ millions)
Critics Positive Opening Weekend  Domestic Total  Overseas Total Worldwide Total
Total Recall 3.19.2010 32% 26.1-est 67-est n/a n/a
Total Recall (in 1990 dollars) 6.1.1990 83% 25.5 119.4 141.9 261.3
   (in 2012 dollars) 48.4 226.4 269.3 495.9
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days 8.3.2012 50% 16.9-est 45-est n/a n/a
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules 3.25.2011 47% 23.7 52.7 19.7 72.4
Diary of a Wimpy Kid 3.19.2010 53% 22.1 64.0 11.7 75.7

The returning films are performing pretty much as forecast.  The Dark Knight Rises is now on pace for $445 million domestic, a little better than it was looking last week but still not what Warner Brothers expected.

In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.

Weekend 31: August 3-5, 2012 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Dark Knight Rises WB [33.8] 36.0 10.3 445
Total Recall Sony [25.5] 26.1 9.1 67
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days Fox [20.0] 16.9 5.8 45
Ice Age: Continental Drift Fox [8.5] 8.1 2.5 155
The Watch Fox [6.3] 6.0 1.9 36
Ted Uni [5.3] 5.5 1.6 225
Step Up Revolution Sum [5.5] 5.3 1.8 34
Amazing Spider-Man Sony [4.2] 4.2 1.2 271
Brave Pix Dis [2.9] 2.8 0.8 232
Magic Mike WB [1.5] 1.4 0.5 116

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $115 million total Friday-Sunday, down 27% from the same calendar weekend last year and down 12% from the average for this weekend the past four years.

($ millions)
WEEKEND #31 Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend
2012 $115 Total Recall $26, Diary Wimpy Kid Dog Days $17
2011 $158 Rise of the Planet of the Apes $55, The Change-Up $13
2010 $123 The Other Guys $35, Step Up 3-D $16
2009 $132 G.I. Joe: Rise of the Cobra $55, Julie & Julia $20
2008 $111 Pineapple Express $23, Sisterhood Traveling Pants 2 $11
Avg 2008-11 $131

Check back tomorrow morning for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses, as well as updated international figures later in the day Sunday.  On Monday, we will update the ShowbuzzDaily Summer Movie Fantasy Draft, as well.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.