FRIDAY AUGUST 9 Box Office Report

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Based on Friday’s grosses, Weekend #32 of 2013 looks like a decent $148 million for the top 12 films, up 11% from the average for this weekend the past few years. None of the openers this weekend look like they will finish with over $100 million domestic, although We’re the Millers has the best shot of coming the closest to that benchmark. 

Opening at 3,284 theaters Friday, Elysium from Sony grossed $11.2 million Friday and is on track for a $30.5 million opening weekend (#1 as expected but below the $35.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $9,300 per theater for the weekend (above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years but hardly worthy of celebration). Critical sentiment is relatively strong and certainly better than the other openers this weekend (66% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 67% with top critics). Elysium is headed for $87 million total domestic.

Opening at 3,260 theaters Wednesday, We’re the Millers from Warner Brothers grossed $8.5 million Friday and is headed for a $25.5 million opening weekend (slightly above our $23.0 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $7,800 per theater for the weekend. With $11.5 million Wednesday-Thursday, We’re the Millers should total $37 through Sunday for the first five days. Critical sentiment is soft: 41% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and a really weak 27% positive with top critics. We’re the Millers is headed for $98 million total domestic.

Opening at 3,702 theaters Friday, Planes from Disney grossed $8.1 million Friday and is on track for a $24.0 million opening weekend (below our $27.5 million forecast). The animated non-Pixar film is pacing toward a three-day average of $6,500 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is weak: 25% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and a lame 18% positive with top critics. Planes is headed for $89 million total domestic.

Opening at 2,907 theaters Wednesday, Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters from 20th Century Fox grossed $4.9 million Friday and is pacing toward a $15.3 million opening weekend (under our $19.5 million forecast). The sequel is pacing toward a three-day average of $5,300 per theater for the weekend. With $8.9 million Wednesday-Thursday, the second Percy Jackson should total $24 through Sunday for the first five days. Critical sentiment is mediocre: 34% positive overall and a somewhat better 44% positive with top critics. Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters is headed for $54 million total domestic, well below the $88.8 million for Percy Jackson & The Olympians: The Lightning Thief (released February 12, 2010). 

The Wolverine has been adjusted down slightly to $137 million domestic total, as has The Conjuring (down to $144 million).  Despicable Me 2 and Grown Ups 2 are holding steady.

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.

In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.