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Oops. The weekend forecasts were way too high for the sequels Sherlock Holmes 2 and Alvin and the Chipmunks 3. The holiday season that was supposed to save 2011 (or at least make the year a little less embarrassing) is shaping up to be a major disappointment. This weekend (when the box office should really be heating up) looks like it will total about $113 million for the top 12 films, 12% below the same weekend in 2010 ($128 million) and well below 2009’s $130 million.
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows will open with $42.0 million this weekend, far below the $61 million forecast and well below the $62 million opening for the first Sherlock Holmes, which opened December 25, 2009. Game of Shadows is currently on track for $160 million domestically, compared to $209 million for the first Sherlock Holmes.
Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked (the third Alvin movie) is under-performing, a $23.5 million opening weekend versus a $35.5 million forecast. Chipwrecked is on track for $140 million, compared to $217 million for the first Alvin and the Chipmunks (opened December 14, 2007) and $219 million for Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel (December 23, 2009).
Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked (the third Alvin movie) is under-performing, a $23.5 million opening weekend versus a $35.5 million forecast. Chipwrecked is on track for $140 million, compared to $217 million for the first Alvin and the Chipmunks (opened December 14, 2007) and $219 million for Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel (December 23, 2009).
The lone movie above forecast was Mission: Impossible — Ghost Protocol (the fourth in the M:I series), which previewed at 425 Imax locations. The weekend is looking like $12.5 million (a terrific $24,400 per theater average), compared to a forecast of $10.5 million. The film goes wide Wednesday.
Young Adult is headed for $3.2 million this weekend versus a $6.5 million forecast. The film should average a soft $3,200 per theater at 986 locations. The comedy-drama is headed for a preliminary $53 million domestically.
In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions
December 16-18, 2011 Pre-Wknd Wknd Showbuzz
(millions) Showbuzz Early FRI Domestic
Forecast Proj. Actual Final
(millions) Showbuzz Early FRI Domestic
Forecast Proj. Actual Final
Sherlock Holmes 2 (WB) [$61.0] $42.0 $14.7 $160
Alvin & Chipmunks 3 (Fox)[$35.5] $23.5 $ 6.8 $140
Mission: Impossible 4 Par[$10.5] $12.5 $ 4.1 $180
New Year’s Eve (WB) [$ 7.0] $ 7.8 $ 2.5 $ 40
Young Adult (Par) [$ 6.5] $ 3.2 $ 1.1 $ 53
Alvin & Chipmunks 3 (Fox)[$35.5] $23.5 $ 6.8 $140
Mission: Impossible 4 Par[$10.5] $12.5 $ 4.1 $180
New Year’s Eve (WB) [$ 7.0] $ 7.8 $ 2.5 $ 40
Young Adult (Par) [$ 6.5] $ 3.2 $ 1.1 $ 53
The Sitter (Fox) [$ 4.5] $ 4.5 $ 1.4 $ 25
Arthur Christmas (Sony) [$ 4.3] $ 3.6 $ 0.8 $ 51
Arthur Christmas (Sony) [$ 4.3] $ 3.6 $ 0.8 $ 51
Twilight Breaking 1 (Sum)[$ 3.8] $ 4.1 $ 1.3 $270
The Muppets (Dis) [$ 3.7] $ 3.3 $ 0.9 $ 81
Hugo (Par) [$ 3.7] $ 3.5 $ 1.0 $ 52
The Descendants (Fox) [$ 3.5] $ 3.1 $ 0.9 $ 40
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a soft $113 million total Friday-Sunday, down 12% from the same calendar weekend last year.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a soft $113 million total Friday-Sunday, down 12% from the same calendar weekend last year.
Top 12 Films: Weekend #50
Volume Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2011 $113 Sherlock Holmes 2 $42, Alvin Chipmunks 3 $23.5
2010 $128 TRON Legacy $44, Yogi Bear $16, The Fighter $12
2009 $130 Avatar $77, Did You Hear About Morgans $6.6
2011 $113 Sherlock Holmes 2 $42, Alvin Chipmunks 3 $23.5
2010 $128 TRON Legacy $44, Yogi Bear $16, The Fighter $12
2009 $130 Avatar $77, Did You Hear About Morgans $6.6
2008 $ 81 Yes Man $18, Seven Pounds $15, Tale of Despereaux $10
2007 $152 National Treasure Book of Secrets $45
2007-10
Avg $122
Next Weekend
Next weekend, Mission: Impossible — Ghost Protocol (goes wide Wednesday), Adventures of Tintin (opens Wednesday), Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (opens Wednesday), We Bought a Zoo (opens Friday), War Horse (opens Christmas Day Sunday) and The Darkest Hour (opens Christmas Day Sunday). These films will be compared to Little Fockers ($31 million opening weekend), True Grit ($25 million) and Gulliver’s Travels ($6.3 million) from the comparable weekend in 2010.
Look for studio estimates for the weekend Sunday morning, as well as international results later in the days Sunday.
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