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Well, another disaster weekend for the Hollywood studios. $70 million in business for the top 12 films, down 17% from the same weekend last year (which was a fairly typical second weekend in December). New Year’s Eve from Garry Marshall will badly miss a forecast that was already down over 50% from the opening of the similar ensemble romantic comedy Valentine’s Day. Warner Brothers will run TV commercials soon touting the #1 movie status of New Year’s Eve, but a $14.5 million opening weekend is still pathetic and the film will be well under $50 million total domestically. The Sitter is a little weaker than expected. The nightmare of 2011 just continues.
New Year’s Eve will open with $14.5 million this weekend, far below the $25 million forecast and well below the $56 million opening for Valentine’s Day, the last ensemble romantic comedy from director Garry Marshall. New Year’s Eve is currently on track for $43 million domestically, compared to $110 million for Valentine’s Day.
The Sitter starring Jonah Hill also is under-performing, a $10.5 million opening weekend versus a $13.5 million forecast. The R-rated comedy might get to $26 million domestically.
In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions
December 9-11, 2011 Pre-Wknd Wknd Showbuzz
(millions) Showbuzz Early FRI Domestic
Forecast Proj. Actual Final
(millions) Showbuzz Early FRI Domestic
Forecast Proj. Actual Final
New Year’s Eve (WB) [$25.0] $14.5 $ 5.1 $ 43
The Sitter (Fox) [$13.5] $10.5 $ 3.7 $ 26
Twilight Breaking 1 (Sum)[$ 8.2] $ 7.9 $ 2.5 $270
The Muppets (Dis) [$ 6.8] $ 6.9 $ 1.7 $ 81
Hugo (Par) [$ 7.0] $ 6.1 $ 1.6 $ 50
Arthur Christmas (Sony) [$ 5.6] $ 6.5 $ 1.4 $ 49
The Descendants (Fox) [$ 4.7] $ 4.5 $ 1.3 $ 35
Happy Feet Two (WB) [$ 3.6] $ 3.6 $ 0.8 $ 67
Jack and Jill (Sony) [$ 3.2] $ 3.0 $ 0.9 $ 73
Immortals (Rel) [$ 2.4] $ 2.4 $ 0.7 $ 84
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a soft $70 million total Friday-Sunday, down 17% from the same calendar weekend last year.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a soft $70 million total Friday-Sunday, down 17% from the same calendar weekend last year.
Top 12 Films: Weekend #49
Volume Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2011 $ 70 New Year’s Eve $14.5, The Sitter $10.5
2010 $ 84 Chronicles of Narnia Voyage Dawn $24, Tourist $16.5
2009 $ 87 Princess and the Frog $24, Invictus $8.6
2011 $ 70 New Year’s Eve $14.5, The Sitter $10.5
2010 $ 84 Chronicles of Narnia Voyage Dawn $24, Tourist $16.5
2009 $ 87 Princess and the Frog $24, Invictus $8.6
2008 $ 82 Day Earth Stood Still $30.5, Nothing Like Holidays $3
2007 $152 I Am Legend $77, Alvin & Chipmunks $44
2007-10
Avg $101
Next Weekend
Next weekend, Alvin and the Chipmunks Chipwrecked, Mission Impossible Ghost Protocol and Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows open. These films will be compared to TRON: Legacy ($44 million opening weekend), Yogi Bear ($16.4 million), The Fighter ($12 million), Black Swan ($8.4 million) and How Do You You Know ($7.5 million) from the comparable weekend in 2010.
Look for studio estimates for the weekend Sunday morning, as well as international results later in the days Sunday.
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