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Safe House opened with $13.6 million Friday for an estimated $36.4 million for the three-day opening weekend, blowing past the $28.0 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast. The Denzel Washington-Ryan Reynolds film is headed for a very good $12,400 average on 3,119 screens. Safe House is headed for a preliminary $112 million total domestic.
The Vow is also beating our prediction: earning $15.1 million Friday for a more front-loaded $36.4 million for Friday-Sunday, ahead of the $33.5 million prediction. Although The Vow made more money than Safe House on Friday, Safe House should catch it for the weekend (and even pass it) given stronger word of mouth. Safe House beats The Vow with critics (52% vs 28% positive at RottenTomatoes) and with opening night audiences (A- vs B CinemaScore grades). The Channing Tatum-Rachel McAdams romantic drama is headed for a preliminary $106 million domestic.
Journey 2: The Mysterious Island is hitting its also beating a less lofty expectation: $6.5 million Friday with a big kid-and-family multiple to $23.4 million this weekend, above the $17.5 million forecast. Journey 2 is on track for $67 million total domestic.
Star Wars: Episode 1 — The Phantom Menace (re-released in 3D) grossed $8.5 million Friday in what should be a front-loaded weekend: $21.7 Friday-Sunday, just above the $20.5 million forecast. The re-issue should gross about $59 million domestic.
In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions
(millions) Showbuzz Early FRI Domestic
Forecast Proj. Actual Final
Safe House (Uni) [$28.0] $36.4 $13.6 $112
The Vow (Sony) [$33.5] $36.4 $15.1 $106
Journey 2 (WB) [$17.5] $23.4 $ 6.5 $ 67
Phantom Menace 3D (Fox) [$20.5] $21.7 $ 8.5 $ 59
Chronicle (Fox) [$11.5] $12.0 $ 3.5 $ 70+
The Woman in Black (CBS) [$10.0] $11.4 $ 3.4 $ 62
The Grey (Open Road) [$ 5.2] $ 4.5 $ 1.3 $ 55-
Big Miracle (Uni) [$ 4.8] $ 3.7 $ 0.9 $ 23-
The Descendants (Fox) [$ 2.9] $ 3.2 $ 0.9 $ 70
Underworld Awakening (So)[$ —] $ 2.4 $ 0.7 $ 66
Red Tails (Fox) [$ —] $ 2.3 $ 0.6 $ 50
One for the Money (LG) [$ 2.7] $ 2.2 $ 0.7 $ 25
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $164 million total Friday-Sunday, up 21% from the same calendar weekend last year and more impressively up 8% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.
Top 12 Films: Weekend #6
2012 $164 Safe House $38, The Vow $38, Journey 2 $23
2011 $135 Just Go With It $30, Justin Bieber $29, Gnomeo $25
2010 $189 Valentine’s Day $56, Percy Jackson $31, Wolfman $31
2009 $163 Friday 13th $41, Confessions Shopaholic $15
2008 $118 Jumper $27, Spiderwick Chron $19, Step Up 2 $19
2008-11
Avg $151
Check back tomorrow for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.
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