January 11, 2014

FRIDAY JANUARY 10 Box Office Report

More articles by »
Written by: Mitch Metcalf
Tags: , , , , ,

Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #2 of 2014 looks like $121 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, down 12% from the average for the same weekend the past few years (but better than we forecast earlier this week).

Opening at 2,876 theaters Friday, Lone Survivor from Universal grossed $14.4 million Friday, putting the Peter Berg-directed Afghanistan War drama on track for a $37.7 million opening three-day weekend (way above our $22.0 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $13,100 per theater for the weekend (well above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is generally supportive (73% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and a similar 69% positive with top critics). Lone Survivor is headed for $114 million total domestic.

Opening at 2,104 theaters Friday, Legend of Hercules from Lionsgate/Summit grossed $3.1 million Friday, placing the film on track for a $9.1 million opening three-day weekend (actually above our very bearish $6.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a sub-par three-day average of $4,300 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is dismissive (only 2% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 11% positive with top critics). Legend of Hercules is headed for a quick exit from theaters and $19 million total domestic.

Weekend 2: January 10-12, 2014 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Lone Survivor Uni [22.0] 37.7 14.4 114
Frozen 3D Dis [12.5] 15.4 3.1 340
Legend of Hercules LG/Sum [6.5] 9.1 3.1 19
The Wolf of Wall Street Par [8.1] 8.8 2.7 107
American Hustle Sony [7.7] 8.2 2.6 131
The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug WB [8.6] 7.5 2.0 259
August: Osage County Weins [3.7] 7.0 2.2 25
Saving Mr. Banks Dis [5.9] 6.3 1.9 91
Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones Par [6.4] 5.9 2.1 36
Her WB [8.5] 5.7 1.8 31
Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues Par [5.6] 5.6 1.9 142
Secret Life of Walter Mitty Fox [4.9] 4.1 1.3 63
Hunger Games: Catching Fire LG/Sum [4.3] 3.9 1.2 420
Grudge Match WB [—] 1.8 .58 32
Inside Llewyn Davis CBS [—] 1.7 .55 26

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In the battle of Oscar hopefuls, August: Osage County beat the wonderful-but-hard-to-sell Her, while Inside Llewyn Davis is not breaking through with a mainstream audience at all.

August: Osage County from The Weinstein Company is on track to average $7,800 per theater this weekend at 905 theaters, for a $7.0 million first wide weekend.  August: Osage County has the least critical support of the three Oscar hopefuls this weekend (only 64% positive overall and an even squishier 59% with top critics).

Her from Warner Brothers is on track to average a very weak $3,300 per theater at 1,729 theaters for a $5.7 million first wide weekend.  Critical support is near universal: 93% positive overall and with the subset of top critics.

From CBS Films, Inside Llewyn Davis is on course for an absolutely dismal $2,400 per theater at 729 theaters, for a $1.7 million total in its first semi-wide weekend.  Critical support is widespread: 94% positive overall and with top critics.

Frozen 3D remains the class of the holdovers, the only returning films to stay above $10 million for the weekend.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $121 million total Friday-Sunday, down 12% from the four-year average for the same weekend and even to the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 2 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2014 $121 Lone Survivor $37.7, Legend of Hercules $9.1, August: Osage County $7.0, Her $5.7
2013 $121 Zero Dark Thirty $24.4, A Haunted House $18.1, Gangster Squad $17.1
2012 $115 Contraband $24.3, Beauty and the Beast 3D $17.8, Joyful Noise $11.2
2011 $115 Green Hornet $33.5, The Dilemma $17.8
2010 $157 The Book of Eli $32.8, The Lovely Bones $17.0, The Spy Next Door $9.7
Avg 2009-13 $138

Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.